Staying ahead of constant requires a keen understanding of the global forces that will shape our human experiences and business decisions
The amount of change happening in the world today is accelerating, creating a continuous challenge for how companies stay ahead of it all, decide where to invest, think about the future, and innovate in ways that enable them to do the disrupting, instead of being the ones disrupted.
Just when you thought a new era of disruption is upon us, another one comes right behind it. The latest disruption, 3D printing, is by some estimates predicted to have a greater impact on the world over the next 20 years than all of the innovations from the industrial revolution combined. 4D printing is a further evolution of 3D printing and is set to completely alter how we create and produce materials by adding the dimension of transformation over time into the creation process.
3D printing is currently transforming the manufacturing of everything from shoes, cars, space stations parts, buildings, and much more by allowing us to produce custom materials and products on demand. 3D printing leads to quicker response, reduced lead times, swift innovation, rapid manufacturing, reduced overhead, mass customization, mass production, use of unique materials, and economies of scale, according to Deloitte.
The technology holds so much promise that some companies are looking to build entire cities from massive 3D printers. A 3D-printing crane dubbed the Minitank can layer up to 2,153 square feet of concrete per day for the construction of buildings, making it 50 percent faster than traditional construction methods.
As 3D printing is now steadily changing the way we produce items, 4D printing is evolving right behind it. 4D printing involves 3D printing objects that can self-assemble and transform based on some external stimuli. For example, a table that assembles itself when you touch a part, or an airplane wing that transforms with wind speed, or a temperature-activated cardio stent. 4D printing is similar to 3D printing since it uses the same techniques of computer-programmed “printing” of layered materials to create a three-dimensional object. However, during the fabrication process of 4D printing, the printed produce reacts to external stimuli — heat, water, chemical, pressure, etc. — to self-assemble or change.
MIT’s Self-Assembly Lab is at the forefront of the 4D printing movement. The lab was created to see how researchers could 3D print an object without relying on sensors or chips. In order to make something “4D” — assemble itself or change precisely under certain conditions — a precise geometric code is used based on the object’s angles and dimensions, as well as measurements that dictate how it should change shape when interacting with outside forces.
“Normally, we print things and we think they’re done,” said Skylar Tibbits, a research scientist at MIT. “That’s the final output and then we assemble them. But we want them to be able to transform and change shape over time. And we want them to assemble themselves.”
Tibbits sees numerous uses for 4D printing technology, including footwear that can adapt to particular sports: “If I start running,” he said, “[the sneakers] should adapt to being running shoes. If I play basketball, they adapt to support my ankles more. If I go on grass, they should grow cleats or become waterproof if it’s raining. It’s not like the shoe would understand that you’re playing basketball, of course, but it can tell what kind of energy or what type of forces are being applied by your foot. It could transform based on pressure. Or it could be moisture or temperature change.”
Numerous organizations are pouring money in 4D printing research and development, including Airbus SAS who is using 4D-related “smart” material that reacts to temperature to cool jet engines and a wing that morphs according to aerodynamic conditions to decrease air resistance. Briggs Automotive Company is developing a morphable wing for its supercar that can adjust to external weather conditions and automatically adjust itself to provide maximum downforce to the car.
“The ability to program a particular area of the material and be able to activate it through heat, water, chemical reaction, pressure and many other external influences to actually do self-assembly. Altogether these represent what we believe will be the next industrial revolution and a fundamental transformation in manufacturing overall.” — Shane Wall, HP CTO
The U.S. Army Research Center is developing a variety of applications including a soldier’s uniform that can alter its camouflage or provide more effective protection against poisonous gases or shrapnel upon contact. Plus, the U.S. Army gave a grant to Harvard University, University of Pittsburgh and University of Illinois to explore ways the military could use self-assembling objects, including the possibility of shelters or bridges that assemble themselves.
Shane Wall, our chief technology officer at HP believes, “That is what 4D printing is about, self-assembly. The ability to program a particular area of the material and be able to activate it through heat, water, chemical reaction, pressure and many other external influences to actually do self-assembly. Altogether these represent what we believe will be the next industrial revolution and a fundamental transformation in manufacturing overall.”
Wall said 4D printing technology is not merely a novelty, but a necessity due to increasing urbanization caused by world population growth that is expected to reach 8 billion people over the next 30 years. This will cause an increase in “megacities — or cities with populations over 10 million people — from 10 in 1990 to 41 over the next ten years. This rapid urbanization will put an incredible demand on manufacturing and the distribution of materials.
The 4D printing industry is expected to be worth upwards of $537 million by 2025 and grow by a CAGR of 42.95 percent between 2019 and 2025. This is being driven by the need to reduce the costs of manufacturing and processing in the face of an increasing focus to ensure a sustainable environment.
“A 4D printed product would incur lesser manufacturing, transportation, and handling costs, which, in turn, would lead to the saving of resources and efforts, thereby sustaining the environment,” according to a report by Grandview Research.
The primary materials segments used for 4D printing are programmable carbon fiber, programmable wood grain, and programmable textiles, with the programmable carbon fiber segment expected to be the largest segment in the overall 4D printing market, according to the Grandview Research.
Since programmable carbon fiber has high stiffness, low weight, and tensile strength, it can be beneficial for many industrial applications, says Grandview Research. It can be autonomously transformed by printing active material on flexible carbon fiber using heat as an activator and it doesn’t require complex electronics, actuators, or sensors.
4D printing to save lives
The healthcare industry is set to take advantage of 4D printing since 4D printed products will be responsive to body needs once ejected in the human body. This could be used for tissue engineering, self-assembling human-scale biomaterials, design of nanoparticles, and nanorobots for chemotherapy. A Frost & Sullivan report finds that 4D printing is still in its infancy and not yet ready for widespread use, yet the potential for the technology in the medical field is significant.
“The potential of this technology to create programmable biological materials that can change shape and properties can be a foundation for enabling smart pharmacology, personalized medicine, and programmable cells and tissues that could be employed in precisely targeted treatments for a number of diseases,” the report notes.
A researcher at the University of Michigan developed a 3D printed splint that can hold open airways of newborn children for two to three years, then absorb into the body. The device was successfully implanted in four babies. Medical researchers are also looking into using 4D biomaterials to help adults correct skeletal applications like facial reconstruction or rebuilding ears.
Strategic investments give HP an eye to the future
One of the primary goals for many corporate venture capital units is to help their company capture future opportunities early. Technology change is happening exponentially around us, and no single company can compete in the world today using just internally developed technology. The successful companies of today and tomorrow, by necessity, will need to embrace open innovation and partner closely with the start-up and venture communities to leverage the full breadth and depth of technology innovation that is taking place around us.
Investing in start-ups provides companies not only with foresight about the markets of tomorrow but optionality to enter those markets by partnering with or acquiring startups to bootstrap and accelerate market entry. Investing in start-ups has many benefits to companies like HP, both strategic and financial. It’s never a choice between the two, as a good investment will have strong strategic value and returns.
Successful investing means aligning a complex array of variables. Starting with understanding the financial viability of the investment and likelihood the start-up can achieve a successful exit (via acquisition) or IPO, and at a valuation that makes the investment worthwhile. Next, you need to look at the strategic impact to the company and if the investment aligns with the vision and strategic objectives of the company. Finally, you need to negotiate terms that make sense for both and the start-up, ensuring is strategically positioned as an investor and advisor, and providing the guidance and financial backing the start-up needs to succeed long-term.
So how does a company move through this process efficiently, always keeping strategic and financial objectives in mind?
What happens when computers become intelligent? We are just now beginning to see what this future may look like, as gains in artificial intelligence (AI) are increasing. From intelligent self-driving cars, to AI-powered robot surgeons and smart factories, computers and machines that can learn and adapt will soon change the world as we know it.
While we are still in the nascent phase of AI technology, billions of dollars are being spent on research and development, helping to accelerate AI advancements. IDC predicts AI spending will increase by more than 50 percent year over year and reach $57.6 billion in investments by 2021.
One industry poised for massive disruption from AI-led technology is transportation. Leading automotive manufacturers and technology companies are in a heated race to develop fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) for use as taxis, commercial transportation, personal transportation and more.
All major car manufacturers are currently exploring AV technology. Each day in Arizona, hundreds AVs developed by Google’s Waymo, Lyft, General Motors and Intel roam the streets of Phoenix and other cities. Arizona lawmakers intentionally created minimal regulations for AVs in order to attract AV-related companies, which encouraged a sort of tech boom in the state. Safety advocates have criticized the state’s lax approach, claiming that more regulations around safety, auto cybersecurity, insurance and privacy have not been worked out.
While AVs for personal transportation have garnered a great deal of attention, AI is now disrupting virtually all other areas of transportation. Uber, Waymo and other companies are testing and using autonomous cargo trucks to deliver goods. GE transportation is actively using AI to develop “intelligent” locomotives to improve efficiency of rail transport and Hitachi is using AI to reduce power consumption. Major airline companies already use autopilot technology to do most of the work once a plane is in the sky and can even land a plane in inclement weather. Now they are researching how AI can replace more of a pilot’s responsibilities.
AI is even having an impact on city infrastructure and planning of cities. The U.S. Department of Transportation issued a call for proposals from cities looking into smart infrastructures. It will award 40 million dollars to a city that can demonstrate how to solve critical municipal challenges using innovative transportation technologies, data and applications.
“It is very clear to us that autonomous technology will fundamentally change the industry,” said Michael Ableson, GM’s vice president of global portfolio planning and strategy. “There is no greater impact on the industry than self-driving cars.”
The brains behind self-driving vehicles Soon, we may well see the road filled with AVs. According to WinterGreen Research, over 90 million autonomous-capable consumer vehicles, cars and light trucks will be on the road worldwide by 2023.
In order for this to happen, a fully functioning, safe AV needs an enormous amount of computing resources, power and AI that can sort through large amounts of data in milliseconds. The biggest challenge facing AVs is to improve the software powered by machine learning and AI to correctly interpret data that is fed through the car’s sensors. It needs to safely drive a vehicle through various weather scenarios and identify and respond to other cars, animals, pedestrians, bike riders and more. In other words, the AI that controls self-driving cars needs to be error-free. “This is not a recommendation engine for Netflix,” said Danny Shapiro, senior director of automotive at chipmaker Nvidia. “The AI has to be spot on.”
AI is already being used for AVs today, including Tesla’s Autopilot system that helps drivers navigate highways and parking lots. Tesla claims every vehicle it produces has the ability for complete, autonomous driving, yet it will only be activated when the necessary software and government regulations are in place.
Cameras inside certain vehicles now identify drivers and track eye position to see if the driver is distracted or asleep. Cars also now identify and predict potential cross traffic danger. Auto braking features that prevent collisions are in place. In fact, if you have a 2017 car, it most likely has level two partial automation features, which can be steering assistance and accelerating or decelerating under certain situations, as defined by the Taxonomy and Definition for Terms Related to On-Road Motor Vehicle Automated Driving Systems. The next three levels in the classification system are all based on vehicles with automated driving systems that monitor and respond to the environment.
As we continue the road to AI-enabled AVs, here are some other exciting details that are expected to emerge in the coming years:
Automotive self-diagnostics and maintenance As automobiles become more like computers with wheels, they are increasingly becoming connected and, with artificial intelligence capabilities, will predictively identify maintenance needs. By combining data from advanced Internet of Things sensors, maintenance logs and other external sources, AI will help with better prediction and avoidance of machine failure, according to McKinsey. This could reduce maintenance costs by up to 10 percent.
Predii, a company that provides a platform that enables organizations greater efficiency for repairs and maintenance, predicts that connected cars will be a source of high-frequency data for predictive and proactive maintenance.
“The availability of continuous streams of data from vehicles will empower vehicle monitoring businesses which are responsible for continuous health checks of your vehicle or fleets of vehicles,” according to a white paper by Predii. “Intelligent repair solutions will monitor check engine lights, diagnostic trouble codes, symptoms and data from advanced driver assistance systems.”
Automated cars are programmed to obey laws Imagine intelligent cars that can drive somebody home who has consumed too much alcohol. Or takes over the wheel if somebody falls asleep. One of the key predicted benefits of having AVs on our roadways is the reduction of traffic accidents. In 2017, there were an estimated 40,000 traffic fatalities in the U.S., with more than 90 percent of them caused by human error, according to the National Safety Council.
Self driving cars are far better than humans at obeying traffic laws, since they are programed to do so. They don’t text and drive, or drive under the influence of alcohol, or drive too fast, which makes them much safer than humans.
Government traffic planners are optimistic that AVs won’t go over the speed limit, which will produce more cohesive and calm roadways with fewer accidents, according to a report last year on speed limits by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Car Rental Companies become Self-Driving Car Fleet management operators If a car can drive itself, do we really need to own our own vehicle? Can’t we call Uber to pick us up in one of their AV taxis? That’s the question posed by various automakers, technology and rental car companies, who envision a near future full of “robot taxis” through a ride sharing or rental car service. This “on-demand autonomous” vehicle is a vision of Michael Ableson, GM’s vice president of global portfolio planning and strategy. And it’s why GM paid $500 million for a stake and a strategic alliance in Lyft, the second biggest ridesharing service behind Uber. Ford isn’t far behind, since in August 2016 the company announced a “high-volume, fully autonomous vehicle for ride sharing” by 2021.
With a fleet of AVs, car-sharing companies are expected to have a coherent view of an AV fleet, monitor and manage it, detect issues and enforce policies. Operators can gather data of each individual vehicle including location, mileage, fuel consumption, driving behaviors and even if a door is left open. The AVs can then be remotely controlled to drive to service stations for repair and refueling.
Reroute traffic based on congestion, accidents, etc. Google maps and other map-based apps have already helped road warriors find the shortest route possible to their destination. As AVs include greater connectivity, the AI behind it can gather data regarding traffic patterns, accidents and slows downs and appropriately — and automatically — reroute for optimal travel. This will help to ultimately lessen traffic congestion.
Tesla’s complete self-driving system will use GPS technology to find the optimal route to its given destination. If the car isn’t given a destination, it can check the owner’s calendar to determine the best destination or take the owner home.
Vehicles as “digital living environments” It now takes the average U.S. worker 25 minutes to travel to work, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. AVs are expected to free up time for passengers to focus other tasks, including work, socializing, viewing entertainment, etc. Bosch has created a show car to display the company’s “digital living environment” inside AVs. It features large-surface monitors with the ability to have video conferences, display real-time traffic and weather information, email accessibility and entertainment options.
“Alongside the home and the office, the car will become the third living environment and a personal assistant,” said Bosch CEO Volkmar Denner.
Autonomous truck services In October 2016, the world’s first successful autonomous truck delivery was completed when an Uber truck carried 50,000 cans of Budweiser beer over a distance of 120 miles from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs, CO. Now Uber’s autonomous trucks are delivering goods throughout Arizona. Other AV companies are following suit.
A report by the International Transport Forum claims autonomous delivery vehicles will save costs, lower emissions and improve road safety, compared with trucks operated by humans. New autonomous trucks will have the ability to perform a host of delivery duties including pick up garbage, deliver packages and food, and a numerous other services. All these services can be optimized through advanced logistics for traffic flow.
Public transportation safety and usage optimization Public transportation also stands to benefit from the use of AVs and the associated logistics operations systems.
In Helsinki, Finland, trial is underway where an autonomous bus transports up to a dozen passengers at a time through a quarter-mile route with restaurants and saunas. The city is expected to expand the trial and provide autonomous bus services throughout the city, in order to measure customer response and basic operations data.
“There’s a lot of demand to solve the last-mile problem,” said Harri Santamala, the city’s project coordinator, referring to the challenge of transporting passengers from centralized transit hubs to their final destinations. “I think this is something we could do with automatic buses. On a real-time basis, we can adjust how they drive and where they make the connection. We’ve learned with this pilot that you can be flexible and synchronize with this technology. We could scale this up to the entire fleet.”
Metro Magazine suggests numerous benefits to a municipal transit system powered by autonomous buses:
Trip-planning information is integrated across modes and agencies (public and private), so the general public has the ability to evaluate their travel options with comprehensive information on travel time, cost, environmental impact, and more.
Real-time schedules for all transportation modes are centrally available.
Vehicles and transit schedules are “right-sized” so fleets are used effectively and there are no more empty buses.
Fare payment is made electronically and only one payment is needed for each whole trip.
Travel times are generally predictable and well-communicated.
Lower income and people with disability populations have access to all of these services.
The future of AVs are near A world of intelligent vehicles is no longer a novel science fiction idea, but a near future. Passenger busses, taxis, personal vehicles, airplanes, trains and more are set to improve the way we get around. Ford, GE, Volkswagen, Audi, Toyota, Ford, BMW and Nissan are all hard at work creating and testing AVs they say will be road ready by 2020. And the U.S. Secretary of Transportation stated at the 2015 Frankfurt Auto show that he expects driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years.
This AI-driven transportation revolution is expected to make our roadways safer, ease traffic congestions, make our transportation systems more efficient and make transportation more enjoyable. And, the trend toward urbanization might be reversed as AVs give people more time to work and be productive.
AI’s potential impact on transportation is immense. Advancements will continue to reshape the industry, how we drive, deliver and ship goods on earth and possibly in space in the future. Get ready to start your AI-powered engines.
Artificial intelligence (AI) will make a direct and immense impact on the healthcare field. Technology has already improved diagnostic accuracy, drug delivery, and patients’ medical records, and AI will only add to those breakthroughs. AI can mine medical records, design personalized treatment plans, handle administrative tasks to free up medical providers’ time for more meaningful tasks, and assist with medication management.
And the general public is on board. According to a recent survey, 47% of people were comfortable with AI assisting doctors in the operating room. More than half of respondents over age 40 were willing to go under the knife with the help of technology, compared with only 40% under age 40. Additionally, six in ten participants (61%) were comfortable with their doctor using data from wearable devices, such as an Apple Watch or Fitbit, to assess their lifestyle and make recommendations based on that data.
So what healthcare areas will AI have an impact on in the next five to ten years?
Mining medical records
In our current age of big data, patient data is valuable. Often times, patients’ files are unorganized and mining their records to extract necessary medical insights can be a great challenge.
David Lindsay, founder of Philadelphia-based start-up, Oncora Medical, realized this struggle in radiation therapy. He and his team built a data analytics platform that helps doctors design sound radiation treatment plans for patients, personalizing each one based on their specific characteristics and medical history.
Virtual healthcare providers
AI is being used to detect emotional health issues as well. x2 developed a mental health chatbot, Tess, that delivers on-demand, psychological support. Tess coaches you through tough times to build resilience, by having text message conversations — in the same way a therapist would. The coping strategies Tess delivers are based on the emotions and concerns you express in your conversations.
Beyond Verbal is another example of a company utilizing AI to track emotional well-being. The emotions analytics company, developed a vocal biomarker to potentially help patients and their providers recognize patterns and better understand their healthcare needs.
Sensly boosts, Molly, a virtual health care assistant which dynamically generates speech, receives images and videos, and offers complete remote monitoring, with support for the common and high-cost conditions.
Clinical trials can take more than a decade and cost millions of dollars. AI can play a part in speeding up the process of drug development, along with making it more cost effective.
GSK, a company that researches, develops, and manufactures innovative pharmaceutical medicines, vaccines, and consumer healthcare products, is active applying AI to its drug discovery arm. In fact, it created an in-house AI unit called “Medicines Discovered Using Artificial Intelligence.” In 2017, the company announced a partnership with Insilico, to identify novel biological targets and pathways.
Overall, AI can assist healthcare providers in managing their patients’ care more efficiently. I don’t believe AI will take healthcare jobs, but instead transform them. AI will provide the opportunity for healthcare works to take on higher impact jobs or at least offload their less desirable workload. AI will create growth and introduce more opportunities for the human workforce. It has the potential to automate mundane tasks, allowing humans to spend more time on more important tasks. If they can collaborate with the human workforce in hospitals and doctors’ offices, it will take care of the most important aspect of healthcare — improving patients’ experiences.
Automation technology is moving into the workplace with unstoppable momentum. As bots and robots take on more kinds of tasks, will they eliminate jobs? Or will they instead generate opportunity for workers to leverage their own strengths and manage their tireless mechanical colleagues?
In today’s workforce a factory line worker, a university professor, and a customer service rep are guaranteed to have one thing in common: a job that will be transformed by the presence of robots and AI in the coming decade. Will that worker be able to change along with it?