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How weak signals can help you stay ahead of the next wave of innovation

A crucial ingredient for any successful business is understanding the trends shaping the world around us and that point to future opportunities.

If you miss these shifts, you risk being disrupted and, worse, going out of business. But if you can catch these potential trends early and capitalize on them, they instead mean growth and opportunity.

Catching these subtle changes early isn’t easy, however. All world-changing shifts don’t just magically appear, they start as weak signals, and you must look for them. A weak signal is very early evidence of a potential future mainstream trend. Given the very early nature of these signals, they may or may not actually become a trend. But identifying and monitoring weak signals over time is integral to getting in on new trends early. Sometimes this can be the difference between catching a new wave and leading this change or getting left behind.

As futurists, we want to be the disrupters, not those being disrupted. To do that, we need to constantly observe society and the world around us to find these new trends and weak signals.

Here are eight weak signals that our team is watching for future impact.

Eco-consumerism

Consumers are becoming more aware of how their consumption contributes to climate change, and this is changing their buying behaviors accordingly. As consumers become more eco-friendly, they’re putting pressure on brands to do the same by repurposing waste, using biodegradable materials, and prioritizing renewable resources. Companies that don’t embrace sustainability or give back to the planet in some way risk losing the support of consumers. With 77% of consumers concerned about the environmental impact of the products they buy, that’s a large demographic to risk losing.

Here’s a look at eco-consumerism at play:

  • These bio-concrete tiles are made with Japanese knotweed and American signal crayfish, two invasive species in the UK that would otherwise be considered waste. They also reduce carbon emissions caused by traditionally made concrete.
  • These running shoes from Zen Running Club are made entirely from plant-based materials, resulting in a fully biodegradable shoe.
  • Molded fiber, an eco-friendly packaging alternative, is gaining momentum. Once a time-consuming process, recent innovations like HP’s Molded Fiber Advanced Tooling Solution are accelerating the adoption of more sustainable packaging.

Rise of reality

While we are still living highly digital lives, and there is significant hype surrounding a potentially virtual future in the metaverse, there is also a growing need for a return to reality. After the lockdown portion of the pandemic, many of us are ready to return to physical spaces, travel, and in-person entertainment to escape Zoom fatigue and tech burnout. As more people crave unplugging over new online experiences, it will be critical for new technologies to enhance our physical experiences and interactions. Even further, tech companies are responsible for improving their products to battle burnout and enhance user experience.

Here’s a look at the rise of reality at play:

  • AiFi, an HP Tech Ventures portfolio company, offers AI-powered autonomous retail solutions, making shopping a seamless experience for consumers and retailers.
  • To address tech fatigue, many tech companies could provide time-limit features or recommend breaks to users. Other companies are getting even more creative, like these hologram startups aiming to make remote meetings feel less impersonal.
  • Location-based VR experiences, powered by technologies like HP’s VR backpack, allow users to blend the virtual with reality.

Distributed enterprise

In a recent HP Wolf Security report, 46% of office workers admitted using their work devices for personal tasks, and 69% claimed to have used their personal devices for work activities. This overlap between work and personal devices has been exacerbated by the increase in remote work, which has further blurred the line between consumer and enterprise. Enterprise products and services are being increasingly distributed across smaller home offices rather than large company headquarters. This has significant implications for cybersecurity and maintenance and could contribute to feature changes.

Here’s a look at distributed enterprise at play:

  • With the era of hybrid work upon us, there is a growing need for devices connecting home and corporate offices. Solutions like HP Presence provide powerful collaboration tools to reinvent how people connect.
  • Employees and companies can better protect their data from cybercriminals by embracing decentralized cybersecurity. Approaches like zero trust security are gaining popularity, with 78% of firms planning to adopt zero trust in 2022.
  • Remote maintenance is not entirely new, but it’s increasingly essential as remote work grows. Advanced remote management technologies, like NVIDIA’s Fleet Command, are working to optimize processes for global IT professionals.

Omniscient health

As people continue to be hyper-conscious of their health, there has been significant growth in health-related technologies ranging from wearable devices to AI-powered diagnostics. Wearables like fitness trackers have become smarter and more powerful, so users are gaining greater insight into their health. Health providers can use this new data, paired with the power of AI, to aid in their care. Microfluidics could also enable faster, less invasive, and more accurate diagnostics. As monitoring our health becomes part of our daily routine, chronic issues could be caught sooner, leading to more proactive care.

Here’s a look at omniscient health at play:

  • Using data from continuous wearable sensors, physiQ generates personalized and actionable insights for patients and their healthcare providers.
  • For people with chronic illnesses, health monitoring tools are essential. Fortunately, many startups are working to create more straightforward and less invasive health monitoring methods, such as BOYDSense, which developed a breath-based glucose level monitor for those with diabetes.
  • Using microfluidics, researchers at Northwestern developed a sticker that absorbs and uses sweat to accurately diagnose cystic fibrosis in newborns. Another research team from the University of Minnesota has also created a new microfluidic chip that could provide point-of-care diagnostics.

Internet of energy

At our current rate, global energy consumption is set to see a 50% increase between 2020 and 2050. With the growing volume of data, demand for clean energy, and increasing adoption of emerging technologies, a new energy system may be critical. Antiquated energy infrastructure, like electrical grids, cannot keep up with technology advancements and energy demands. The Internet of Energy may be the best solution, as it can reduce inefficiencies, limit waste, and maximize the potential of existing infrastructures. It could also lead to the adoption of smart grid technology, which would hugely benefit users and energy consumption.

Here’s a look at the internet of energy at play:

  • Smart panels from startups like Span balance home electricity use to avoid overloading utility grids.
  • Packetized Energy, recently acquired by EnergyHub, is a software platform aggregating energy devices such as water heaters, HVAC systems, electric vehicle chargers, solar inverters, and distributed batteries into dispatchable and flexible grid resources.
  • General Electric (GE) launched a startup, Current, which pairs LEDs and solar panels with software. This allows the system to gather data to apply insights to corporate operations to increase lighting and productivity savings.

Geospatial AI

The increasing number of satellites and improved image quality provides a plethora of data that, combined with supercomputing, allows Geospatial AI (GEOAI) to extract and impart impactful insights. This integration of geospatial studies and AI helps machine learning mimic human spatial reasoning and dynamics to better understand environmental and geographical impacts. This could lead to hyper-local and instantaneous weather forecasting, real-time wildfire detection, and other capabilities that could make environmental conservation and planning more seamless.

Here’s a look at GEOAI at play:

  • Google’s Machine Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting from Radar Images performs weather forecasting using real-time data instead of hours-old data.
  • The city of Boston will use data from satellites in the TreeTect pilot to improve tree equity and anticipate tree maintenance tasks.
  • Scientists from Stanford University developed a deep-learning model that maps fuel moisture levels across 12 of the US’ Western states, making it easier to predict where wildfires are likely to ignite and spread.

Transportation transformation

Growing concern for pollution and congestion is leading to disruptive innovation in transportation technology, policy, and infrastructure, which will radically change how we transport people and things in the future. Crowded freeways, slow delivery times, and an urgency to counteract climate change all demand revolutionary change in the transportation industry.

Urban transportation is central to the effort to slow climate change, with plenty of opportunities for growth and innovation. Home to more than half the world’s population, cities account for more than two-thirds of global carbon dioxide emissions. Transportation is often the most prominent and fastest-growing source of emissions and is the U.S.’ second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Here’s a look at transportation transformation at play:

  • Though not quite a reality yet, the idea of a hyperloop has long captivated society, with companies like Virgin and The Boring Company working towards its creation. The technology exists to create the ultra-fast transportation concept, but there are still significant hurdles to overcome.
  • TuSimple has created autonomous trucks, which promise improved safety, efficiency, and sustainability. Its trucks allegedly shaved 10 hours off a 24-hour run.
  • Florence has implemented smart trams, which could shape future transportation for other European cities.

3D-printed electronics

Advances in 3D printing technology that allow for voxel-level specification of materials, combined with improvements in metal substrates, will enable electronic components to be printed at the same time as durable parts, rather than being added as a separate assembly step after printing. These capabilities could allow electronic devices to be 3D-printed on demand as all-in-one elements, with no assembly required. This would minimize production costs and time and create an opportunity to reduce the size and weight of electronics.

Here’s a look at 3D-printed electronics at play:

  • Japanese CAD and 3D printing company SOLIZE uses HP 3D printers to make out-of-production spare parts for NISMO, the motorsport division of Nissan
  • Optomec’s Aerosol Jet printing technology enables 3D-printed electronics using aerodynamic focusing.
  • Nano Dimension’s Dragonfly IV 3D printer can generate entire circuits in one step.
  • Researchers at the University of Florida have developed a method of printing copper on fabric, a milestone for wearable electronics.

Considering the state of our world, futuristic thinking is a necessary skill we all need to learn and practice. With the constant and rapid pace of change, everyone should be honing their futurist skills. And thinking like a futurist isn’t reserved for a select group of people. It is a fundamental skill set that anyone can learn.

This is not something all of us do naturally, though. Only a small percent of the population thinks and plans for the future. In fact, only 35% of Americans regularly think about their five-year future. Those who aren’t thinking of their futures are disadvantaged over those who do. If we want to stay one step ahead in our fast-paced world, and if we’re going to move forward and create the future we want, we must adopt long-term, futuristic thinking.

To help you get started, here are three essential practices that I have found very useful in my career as a futurist:

  1. Monitor shifts — Pay attention and understand what’s happening in the world around you. Notice the small changes that create new needs. Keep an eye on these weak signals and any others that appear.
  2. Visualize future outcomes — Start with your vision for the future and work backward from there, not the other way around. What was the catalyst for your vision of the future?
  3. Adopt an innovative mindset — Have a “can do” attitude and be unstoppable. Embrace everything as a learning opportunity, even failure.

The more you think like a futurist, the better you can create the future you want.

Which of these weak signals are you interested in? Any others you are monitoring? Share your thoughts with me in the comments.

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How to think like a futurist: Cybersecurity

Change is happening faster and faster around us. So how do we manage it and stay ahead of it? How do we ensure we are leading change and not being disrupted by it to create the future we want? One of the key ingredients for any successful business is understanding the trends that are shaping the world around us and that are pointing to what the opportunities of the future might be. The corporate graveyard is littered with companies who weren’t monitoring trends and went out of business because they didn’t react fast enough to the changing world around them. But if you can catch these shifts early and figure out how to capitalize on them, that is where growth and opportunity lie.

In this new series, I’m helping you see through the lens of a futurist by exploring some of the exciting technologies and trends bound to shape our future lives.

Ready to think like a futurist? Let’s explore cybersecurity.

What is cybersecurity?

Cybersecurity is the practice of protecting connected technologies against unauthorized digital access. It applies to everything from devices to digital networks to critical data. As our digital lives grow, so does the importance of cybersecurity. With the number of cyberattacks occurring at alarming rates, the cybersecurity industry must continue to adapt and improve to keep up with cyber threats.

There are several different facets of cybersecurity, including:

  • Endpoint security: Securing endpoint devices such as laptops, printers, and point-of-sale devices
  • Data security: Protecting and managing digital information
  • Network security: Safeguarding access to secure networks by monitoring access and use
  • Application (app) security: Implementing security features within apps to protect users
  • Database security: Protecting the data within the database, as well as any associated apps, infrastructure, and physical hardware
  • Cloud security: Securing cloud-based tools and data
  • Identity management: Technologies and infrastructure that control user access to networks and/or data
  • Mobile security: A facet of endpoint security that focuses on protecting mobile devices
  • Disaster recovery: The recovery of IT infrastructure following a disaster includes anything from a cyber-attack to a natural disaster

In an ideal situation, these facets work together to create a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity for organizations and individuals, however, it is extremely difficult to do that, which is the source of many problems the industry is facing.

What are the trends?

Our society has become dependent on digital tools and technologies, and the impact of cybersecurity breaches and attacks cannot be overstated.

HP understands the importance of cybersecurity and endlessly works to build safe and secure products. With a deep focus on endpoint security, HP is constantly adapting to stay ahead of cybersecurity trends and risks. In 2019, HP acquired Bromium and now utilizes its technology for essential malware protection. HP also offers HP Wolf Security as powerful endpoint protection that is built-in to its PCs and printers. Starting at the hardware level and extending across software, HP Wolf Security is a unique and comprehensive cybersecurity offering. As a true prevention-first solution with containment of threats, HP Wolf Security is better than detection alone.

When cybersecurity fails or is ill-equipped, several aspects of our lives are at risk, from our data and identities to our safety. Governments, organizations, and individuals respond to cybersecurity threats with new approaches and regulations in our increasingly digital world.

These new approaches include zero-trust frameworks and multi-factor authentication, which provide a heightened level of security for users. Zero-trust framework adoption has increased by 27% in the past two years. Zero-trust security works by requiring all users to be authenticated and regularly validated before gaining access to any networks, data, or applications. Multi-factor authentication is a part of zero trust, requiring multiple verification points before granting access to any user, thus protecting against brute force logins and login theft.

Individuals are now expected to be more responsible for cybersecurity, as well. With hybrid and remote work now commonplace, more responsibility is placed on employees to stay on top of their organization’s cybersecurity requirements. Many organizations now require remote employees to install a VPN (virtual private network) to protect their internet connections. Network segmentation is also becoming popular amongst IT professionals, as it gives administrators more control over who has access to which data. While this increases security, it also adds steps for all employees as they maneuver these new systems.

Governments are enacting new regulations and policies to navigate this new world of cybersecurity and digital risks. In June 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden signed two new cybersecurity bills into law. The State and Local Government Cybersecurity Act of 2021 is meant to improve coordination amongst different departments and governments, allowing for more accessible tools and information sharing. The Federal Rotational Cyber Workforce Program Act of 2021 focuses on skill-building for federal employees, allowing role rotations amongst those in cybersecurity-related fields to enable a more comprehensive learning experience. The U.S. is not alone in its cybersecurity laws. The UK and EU are also considering new legislation addressing the growing cyber protection demand.

Where is the opportunity?

There was a 125% increase in cyberattacks in 2021, a percentage expected to grow in the coming years. Not only were there more attacks, but they were also more complex, with many having the ability to evade existing endpoint protection tools. To maintain cybersecurity in the future, there must be continuous improvement and adaptation in security tools and frameworks and increased skill development for cyber professionals and leadership.

As explored above, more organizations must adopt a zero-trust framework. While this framework is not a perfect solution, it is still a powerful strategy against cyber risk. Zero trust inherently focuses on prevention rather than reacting to threats, which is essential for organizations dealing with constant cyber-attack attempts.

Another area of opportunity for cybersecurity is blockchain technology. From secure transactions to identity management, blockchain has the potential to be a powerful cybersecurity solution. Due to its transparency and interoperability, blockchain could make it easier to verify data, identify fraud, and create innovative cybersecurity solutions.

The downside to blockchain, however, is its immaturity as a technology. As it is a somewhat recent innovation, it is likely to have unknown vulnerabilities that leave it open for risk. This issue applies to all emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, because cyber threats tend to evolve alongside technological advancements, creating an ongoing feedback loop. Due to this, assumptions about cybersecurity practices will need to be constantly challenged as nascent technologies grow.

Finally, there is an incredible demand for cybersecurity talent, with over 700,000 roles needing to be filled. Because cybersecurity positions often require specific credentials and certifications, there aren’t enough qualified job seekers to fill those roles. Some companies are addressing this issue by removing some requirements, and others are creating talent pipelines and programs specifically for cybersecurity professionals. There is also a lack of cybersecurity talent in leadership, with 45% of companies lacking a Chief Information Security Officer. This lack of cyber skills opens an opportunity for company programs and online courses that could help build a qualified and effective cybersecurity workforce.

Data rules our digital lives, and protecting that information from bad actors is essential. As emerging technologies bring us deeper into the digital world, cybersecurity tools, approaches, and skills will become critical for everyone. Cybersecurity professionals may be the only people honing their abilities now, but these skills could soon become necessary for anyone accessing the internet.

Now it’s your turn. Do you think cybersecurity will be able to keep up with future threats? Should we all be taking cybersecurity courses? Sound off in the comments.
 
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How to think like a futurist: Microfluidics

The world never stops changing, and it’s the job of a futurist to stay ahead of change and prepare for the future. Anyone can be a futurist by paying attention to trends and embracing the constant shifts in society and technology. As futurists, we can take advantage of opportunities to lead, innovate, and build a better future.

In this new series, we will look through the lens of a futurist to explore some of the exciting technologies and trends bound to shape our future lives.

Ready to think like a futurist? Let’s dive into microfluidics.

Step 1: What is microfluidics?

In short, microfluidics is the ability to work with tiny amounts of fluid and at great precision. Printing is an excellent example of that. Over the last 30 years, HP has perfected the art of placing very small amounts of fluid in exact locations on a page to create printing. The technology behind this is microfluidics.

We are talking here about manipulating fluids that are a fifth the size of a human cell and a thousand times smaller than a raindrop. Hence the name microfluidics, and of course, microfluidics isn’t something that is only applied to printing. There are a lot of fluids in the world, including within our bodies. From life sciences to agriculture to healthcare, microfluidics has a whole host of existing and potential applications.

Step 2: Trendspotting

Did you know that someone is added to the US national organ transplant waiting list every nine minutes? Along with many other sobering statistics, that fact showcases the immense need for innovation within biotech, and microfluidics may be the solution.

Recent advancements from the Stevens’ Schaefer School of Engineering & Science have found a way to accelerate the creation of 3D-printed organs. Led by associate professor Robert Chang, these researchers hope to use microfluidics to achieve a more precise and controllable method for 3D-printing organs. By creating a microfluidics-enabled 3D printer, researchers could more accurately print organs at the scale of human cells. Microfluidics can also utilize multiple “bio-inks,” allowing for the reproduction of any type of tissue and opening exciting new avenues for healthcare technology.

Another healthcare innovation using microfluidics is these wearable sweat sensors. Using paper-based microfluidics, these sensors can measure various chemicals, drugs, and hormones in sweat. The information gathered from these sensors could help diagnose several health issues, from cardio-renal disease to cystic fibrosis.

Step 3: Opportunity knocks

As startups and scientists continue to explore the potential behind microfluidics, the technology will become further refined and precise, leading to more opportunities within healthcare and diagnostic tech.

One such company is Fluigent, which aims to develop more advanced fluid control systems. Doing so could help accelerate the development of new medicines, therapeutic treatments, vaccines, and more. By introducing pressure pumps to its microfluidics chips, Fluigent could achieve complete control of flow rates, allowing for much higher precision. HP Labs is also exploring microfluidics and its many uses, such as cancer detection.

Due to the rising demand for point-of-care diagnostics and other microfluidics technologies, the global microfluidics market is expected to be worth $43 billion by 2027. Though microfluidics technology could be applied across several industries, the healthcare industry will likely see the most significant impact. After the effects of COVID-19, healthcare has received more attention than ever, specifically diagnostic technologies enabled by microfluidics.

Let’s also look at food and water contamination. One in 10 people suffer and fall ill from food contamination every year. One in four people lacks access to safe drinking water. But how do they know? Today these tests for contaminated food and water need to be sent into a central lab facility with large and expensive equipment, and it takes days to get results back. But what if all of us could carry something in our pocket that could in real-time test whether the food we’re eating or the water we’re drinking is safe? That’s the power of microfluidics.  

When I think of microfluidics, I believe it’s very similar now to how computing was 50 years ago. Fifty years ago, we had these vast mainframe computers in central facilities. If you wanted to use them, you’d mail in punch cards that got processed, and you’d need to wait days for the result. Microprocessors changed all of that, effectively shrinking a mainframe down into a PC or a phone to democratize access to computing. Today microfluidics promises to do the same for healthcare and life sciences, taking large centralized and expensive lab equipment and shrinking it down to a lab-on-a-chip, enabling a world where everyone can have a “lab” on their desk or in their pocket, and providing everyone with access to instant disease diagnostics or personalized treatment information.

Microfluidics technology will change our world, from how we diagnose illnesses to how we heal people. Beyond healthcare, the technology could reinvent food science or even space travel! Microfluidics is likely to significantly improve our future lives, and futurists must look for opportunities to embrace and contribute to this technology.

Now it’s your turn: How do you think microfluidics will change our world?

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How to think like a futurist: Blockchain

Keeping up with our ever-changing world can feel like a full-time job. Adapting to a never-ending stream of news, innovations, and societal shifts can be overwhelming but can also be a source of excitement. For futurists, change brings opportunities to lead, innovate, and build a better future.

In this new series, we will look through the lens of a futurist to explore some of the exciting technologies and trends bound to shape our future lives.

Ready to think like a futurist? First up: Blockchain.

Step 1: What is blockchain?

While blockchain is still relatively new and its adoption slow, it is a core component of most cryptocurrencies and a clear opportunity for innovation.

But what is blockchain, and why is it important?

Blockchain is a distributed public ledger technology (DLT) that allows users to record immutable transactions in a secure digital system. Unlike traditional ways of managing data and transactions, blockchain decentralizes its data instead of holding information on one central database. This is one of the reasons blockchains are so secure.

Most blockchains are public, adding transparency. All transactions on public blockchains are viewable by anyone with a blockchain explorer. This makes it extra difficult for hackers (though not impossible) to steal cryptocurrencies, as every transaction is traceable.

Step 2: Trendspotting

Let’s look at the current trends and use cases that paint a picture of the potential opportunities for blockchain.

Blockchain has predominantly enabled cryptocurrencies and updated banking in recent years. Now, thanks to the hyper-popularity of NFTs, increasing uses in supply chain, financial services, entertainment and other industries there is added legitimacy to blockchain-enabled innovations. According to a recent report, the blockchain market is expected to see exponential growth, from $4.9 billion in 2021 to $67.4 billion by 2026. In 2021, venture capital funding for blockchain startups increased by an impressive 713% from 2020, reaching $25.2 billion. With this increased investment and enablement, blockchain could continue to support everything from cryptocurrencies to NFTs to smart contracts. It could also enable asset transfers, remittances, supply chain monitoring, vaccine management, GameFi, and the Metaverse.

  • Asset transfers: Did you know that the use of blockchain could also apply to tangible assets, like houses and cars? For example, suppose Person A wanted to buy a house from Person B. They could use the blockchain to verify ownership, transfer funds, and update title and deed records using the blockchain rather than through an escrow company. One example of this is startup Propy, a platform that uses blockchain to simplify and secure the home-purchasing process.
  • Remittances and Payments: When it comes to making global payments, the current processes are less than ideal. Due to long processing times and expensive fees, people are seeking out better methods. By using blockchain technology, the remittance economy could remove the mediator and therefore eliminate fees and greatly reduce transaction times. Ripple is a great example of this opportunity, using the power of blockchain to shape an inclusive financial system and the future of global payments.
  • Supply chain monitoring: Global issues surrounding the supply chain have been unrelenting since the start of the pandemic, but these issues present opportunities for several emerging technologies to provide solutions, including blockchain. Because the global supply chain generates huge amounts of data, it can be challenging to track down specific information. Blockchain’s transparency and traceability could help simplify supply chain monitoring, as exemplified by VeChain’s solutions. Using blockchain, IoT, and other solutions, VeChain helps to mitigate the many data issues that arise within supply chain logistics.
  • Vaccine management: The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines presented several logistical challenges, such as temperature tracking. Because most COVID-19 vaccines needed to stay at specific temperatures, these British hospitals turned to temperature sensors paired with blockchain to ensure that any batches that experienced temperature disruptions would be removed from use. IBM has also stepped up and created a vaccine distribution network using their blockchain, making the process easier to control for manufacturers, distributors, and patients.
  • GameFi: Gamers are exploring “play-to-earn” models that combine cryptocurrency, NFTs, and blockchain. This trend is known as GameFi, and earnings range from bonuses for gameplay to full-time income. By utilizing blockchain, GameFi projects allow users to earn crypto for gameplay and own and store their game assets on a public blockchain.
  • Metaverse: Possibly the hottest topic right now, the Metaverse has opened numerous possibilities for emerging technologies like blockchain. Purchasing power within a Metaverse could rely on cryptocurrencies secured by blockchain technology, and user data could also be fully secured using blockchain. If our lives become intertwined with the Metaverse, security could prove essential. Similarly, the decentralized nature of blockchain has become an area of interest for people exploring Metaverse possibilities. Instead of hosting virtual worlds on corporate servers, some believe that a decentralized Metaverse could have more opportunities. Blockchain also empowers and secures digital real estate within the Metaverse, with everyone from PwC to Snoop Dogg buying virtual property.

Step 3: Opportunity knocks

As exciting as these trends may be, some issues hinder realization. When it comes to blockchain, the main problem is scalability. Because of its decentralized nature, using blockchain has certain limitations — storage, compute power, environmental impact, uptime etc. — which can lead to significant issues, like network outages, such as those recently experienced by Solana and Polygon.

Storage capacity is another big concern for blockchain because each node on a network holds a copy of its distributed digital ledger. As more users add information to that blockchain, scalability becomes an issue. In that same vein, response time slows down as more information is added to a blockchain, as each new transaction requires a network-wide verification process from all connected nodes.

Those large computing needs come at a cost. Because each transaction requires so much processing power, many are concerned about blockchain’s heavy energy consumption. Blockchain can also leave quite a carbon footprint because of its storage.

These issues may seem like difficult hurdles to overcome. But obstacles can also become opportunities.

Innovative thinking is required to develop strategic solutions or complementary technologies to solve blockchain scalability issues. Blockchain professionals are looking at several solutions, such as switching from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake consensus algorithms, improving capacity, and reducing computational energy.

To help address sustainability issues many new cryptocurrencies have emerged, aiming to use the most eco-friendly methods. One blockchain, Algorand, was specifically built with sustainability in mind and pledged to be forever carbon neutral. HP is also working to find ways to reduce the climate impact of the Metaverse, an emerging technology likely to be powered by blockchain. With Z by HP and its acquisition of Teradici, Metaverse creators will be able to turn to cloud-based alternatives. As consumer demand for environmentally friendly options grows stronger, blockchain creators are wise to pay attention and find viable solutions.

By looking at technologies and trends through the lens of a futurist, we can begin to shape an idea of how they will impact our futures. Blockchain has the potential to revolutionize how we manage and secure critical data, which is no simple feat in our increasingly digital world.

By keeping aware of trends and obstacles, futurists can explore and influence opportunities that could significantly impact our world. New technologies and trends contribute to a constant state of change, altering everything from how we do business to how we live our lives. By thinking like a futurist, you can become a part of that change.

Now that we’ve explored blockchain, how do you think it will have changed our world in the next ten years?

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HP Megatrends 2020 Refresh

Staying ahead of constant requires a keen understanding of the global forces that will shape our human experiences and business decisions

The amount of change happening in the world today is accelerating, creating a continuous challenge for how companies stay ahead of it all, decide where to invest, think about the future, and innovate in ways that enable them to do the disrupting, instead of being the ones disrupted.

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4D printing and a world of smart materials

 

Just when you thought a new era of disruption is upon us, another one comes right behind it. The latest disruption, 3D printing, is by some estimates predicted to have a greater impact on the world over the next 20 years than all of the innovations from the industrial revolution combined. 4D printing is a further evolution of 3D printing and is set to completely alter how we create and produce materials by adding the dimension of transformation over time into the creation process.

3D printing is currently transforming the manufacturing of everything from shoes, cars, space stations parts, buildings, and much more by allowing us to produce custom materials and products on demand. 3D printing leads to quicker response, reduced lead times, swift innovation, rapid manufacturing, reduced overhead, mass customization, mass production, use of unique materials, and economies of scale, according to Deloitte.

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The technology holds so much promise that some companies are looking to build entire cities from massive 3D printers. A 3D-printing crane dubbed the Minitank can layer up to 2,153 square feet of concrete per day for the construction of buildings, making it 50 percent faster than traditional construction methods.

As 3D printing is now steadily changing the way we produce items, 4D printing is evolving right behind it. 4D printing involves 3D printing objects that can self-assemble and transform based on some external stimuli. For example, a table that assembles itself when you touch a part, or an airplane wing that transforms with wind speed, or a temperature-activated cardio stent. 4D printing is similar to 3D printing since it uses the same techniques of computer-programmed “printing” of layered materials to create a three-dimensional object. However, during the fabrication process of 4D printing, the printed produce reacts to external stimuli — heat, water, chemical, pressure, etc. — to self-assemble or change.

MIT’s Self-Assembly Lab is at the forefront of the 4D printing movement. The lab was created to see how researchers could 3D print an object without relying on sensors or chips. In order to make something “4D” — assemble itself or change precisely under certain conditions — a precise geometric code is used based on the object’s angles and dimensions, as well as measurements that dictate how it should change shape when interacting with outside forces.

“Normally, we print things and we think they’re done,” said Skylar Tibbits, a research scientist at MIT. “That’s the final output and then we assemble them. But we want them to be able to transform and change shape over time. And we want them to assemble themselves.”

Tibbits sees numerous uses for 4D printing technology, including footwear that can adapt to particular sports: “If I start running,” he said, “[the sneakers] should adapt to being running shoes. If I play basketball, they adapt to support my ankles more. If I go on grass, they should grow cleats or become waterproof if it’s raining. It’s not like the shoe would understand that you’re playing basketball, of course, but it can tell what kind of energy or what type of forces are being applied by your foot. It could transform based on pressure. Or it could be moisture or temperature change.”

Numerous organizations are pouring money in 4D printing research and development, including Airbus SAS who is using 4D-related “smart” material that reacts to temperature to cool jet engines and a wing that morphs according to aerodynamic conditions to decrease air resistance. Briggs Automotive Company is developing a morphable wing for its supercar that can adjust to external weather conditions and automatically adjust itself to provide maximum downforce to the car.

“The ability to program a particular area of the material and be able to activate it through heat, water, chemical reaction, pressure and many other external influences to actually do self-assembly. Altogether these represent what we believe will be the next industrial revolution and a fundamental transformation in manufacturing overall.” — Shane Wall, HP CTO

The U.S. Army Research Center is developing a variety of applications including a soldier’s uniform that can alter its camouflage or provide more effective protection against poisonous gases or shrapnel upon contact. Plus, the U.S. Army gave a grant to Harvard University, University of Pittsburgh and University of Illinois to explore ways the military could use self-assembling objects, including the possibility of shelters or bridges that assemble themselves.

Shane Wall, our chief technology officer at HP believes, “That is what 4D printing is about, self-assembly. The ability to program a particular area of the material and be able to activate it through heat, water, chemical reaction, pressure and many other external influences to actually do self-assembly. Altogether these represent what we believe will be the next industrial revolution and a fundamental transformation in manufacturing overall.”

Wall said 4D printing technology is not merely a novelty, but a necessity due to increasing urbanization caused by world population growth that is expected to reach 8 billion people over the next 30 years. This will cause an increase in “megacities — or cities with populations over 10 million people — from 10 in 1990 to 41 over the next ten years. This rapid urbanization will put an incredible demand on manufacturing and the distribution of materials.

The 4D printing industry is expected to be worth upwards of $537 million by 2025 and grow by a CAGR of 42.95 percent between 2019 and 2025. This is being driven by the need to reduce the costs of manufacturing and processing in the face of an increasing focus to ensure a sustainable environment.

“A 4D printed product would incur lesser manufacturing, transportation, and handling costs, which, in turn, would lead to the saving of resources and efforts, thereby sustaining the environment,” according to a report by Grandview Research.

The primary materials segments used for 4D printing are programmable carbon fiber, programmable wood grain, and programmable textiles, with the programmable carbon fiber segment expected to be the largest segment in the overall 4D printing market, according to the Grandview Research.

Since programmable carbon fiber has high stiffness, low weight, and tensile strength, it can be beneficial for many industrial applications, says Grandview Research. It can be autonomously transformed by printing active material on flexible carbon fiber using heat as an activator and it doesn’t require complex electronics, actuators, or sensors.

4D printing to save lives

The healthcare industry is set to take advantage of 4D printing since 4D printed products will be responsive to body needs once ejected in the human body. This could be used for tissue engineering, self-assembling human-scale biomaterials, design of nanoparticles, and nanorobots for chemotherapy. A Frost & Sullivan report finds that 4D printing is still in its infancy and not yet ready for widespread use, yet the potential for the technology in the medical field is significant.

“The potential of this technology to create programmable biological materials that can change shape and properties can be a foundation for enabling smart pharmacology, personalized medicine, and programmable cells and tissues that could be employed in precisely targeted treatments for a number of diseases,” the report notes.

A researcher at the University of Michigan developed a 3D printed splint that can hold open airways of newborn children for two to three years, then absorb into the body. The device was successfully implanted in four babies. Medical researchers are also looking into using 4D biomaterials to help adults correct skeletal applications like facial reconstruction or rebuilding ears.

To read the rest of the article, visit HPMegatrends.com.

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How Megatrends inform HP’s investment strategies

Strategic investments give HP an eye to the future

One of the primary goals for many corporate venture capital units is to help their company capture future opportunities early. Technology change is happening exponentially around us, and no single company can compete in the world today using just internally developed technology. The successful companies of today and tomorrow, by necessity, will need to embrace open innovation and partner closely with the start-up and venture communities to leverage the full breadth and depth of technology innovation that is taking place around us.

Investing in start-ups provides companies not only with foresight about the markets of tomorrow but optionality to enter those markets by partnering with or acquiring startups to bootstrap and accelerate market entry. Investing in start-ups has many benefits to companies like HP, both strategic and financial. It’s never a choice between the two, as a good investment will have strong strategic value and returns.

Successful investing means aligning a complex array of variables. Starting with understanding the financial viability of the investment and likelihood the start-up can achieve a successful exit (via acquisition) or IPO, and at a valuation that makes the investment worthwhile. Next, you need to look at the strategic impact to the company and if the investment aligns with the vision and strategic objectives of the company. Finally, you need to negotiate terms that make sense for both and the start-up, ensuring is strategically positioned as an investor and advisor, and providing the guidance and financial backing the start-up needs to succeed long-term.

So how does a company move through this process efficiently, always keeping strategic and financial objectives in mind?

To read the full article, visit HPMegatrends.com.

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The future of transportation: How AI is helping vehicles think

What happens when computers become intelligent? We are just now beginning to see what this future may look like, as gains in artificial intelligence (AI) are increasing. From intelligent self-driving cars, to AI-powered robot surgeons and smart factories, computers and machines that can learn and adapt will soon change the world as we know it.

While we are still in the nascent phase of AI technology, billions of dollars are being spent on research and development, helping to accelerate AI advancements. IDC predicts AI spending will increase by more than 50 percent year over year and reach $57.6 billion in investments by 2021.

One industry poised for massive disruption from AI-led technology is transportation. Leading automotive manufacturers and technology companies are in a heated race to develop fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) for use as taxis, commercial transportation, personal transportation and more.

All major car manufacturers are currently exploring AV technology. Each day in Arizona, hundreds AVs developed by Google’s Waymo, Lyft, General Motors and Intel roam the streets of Phoenix and other cities. Arizona lawmakers intentionally created minimal regulations for AVs in order to attract AV-related companies, which encouraged a sort of tech boom in the state. Safety advocates have criticized the state’s lax approach, claiming that more regulations around safety, auto cybersecurity, insurance and privacy have not been worked out.

While AVs for personal transportation have garnered a great deal of attention, AI is now disrupting virtually all other areas of transportation. Uber, Waymo and other companies are testing and using autonomous cargo trucks to deliver goods. GE transportation is actively using AI to develop “intelligent” locomotives to improve efficiency of rail transport and Hitachi is using AI to reduce power consumption. Major airline companies already use autopilot technology to do most of the work once a plane is in the sky and can even land a plane in inclement weather. Now they are researching how AI can replace more of a pilot’s responsibilities.

AI is even having an impact on city infrastructure and planning of cities. The U.S. Department of Transportation issued a call for proposals from cities looking into smart infrastructures. It will award 40 million dollars to a city that can demonstrate how to solve critical municipal challenges using innovative transportation technologies, data and applications.

“It is very clear to us that autonomous technology will fundamentally change the industry,” said Michael Ableson, GM’s vice president of global portfolio planning and strategy. “There is no greater impact on the industry than self-driving cars.”

Enjoying this article? Read The butterfly effect of self-driving cars

The brains behind self-driving vehicles
Soon, we may well see the road filled with AVs. According to WinterGreen Research, over 90 million autonomous-capable consumer vehicles, cars and light trucks will be on the road worldwide by 2023.

In order for this to happen, a fully functioning, safe AV needs an enormous amount of computing resources, power and AI that can sort through large amounts of data in milliseconds. The biggest challenge facing AVs is to improve the software powered by machine learning and AI to correctly interpret data that is fed through the car’s sensors. It needs to safely drive a vehicle through various weather scenarios and identify and respond to other cars, animals, pedestrians, bike riders and more. In other words, the AI that controls self-driving cars needs to be error-free. “This is not a recommendation engine for Netflix,” said Danny Shapiro, senior director of automotive at chipmaker Nvidia. “The AI has to be spot on.”

AI is already being used for AVs today, including Tesla’s Autopilot system that helps drivers navigate highways and parking lots. Tesla claims every vehicle it produces has the ability for complete, autonomous driving, yet it will only be activated when the necessary software and government regulations are in place.

Cameras inside certain vehicles now identify drivers and track eye position to see if the driver is distracted or asleep. Cars also now identify and predict potential cross traffic danger. Auto braking features that prevent collisions are in place. In fact, if you have a 2017 car, it most likely has level two partial automation features, which can be steering assistance and accelerating or decelerating under certain situations, as defined by the Taxonomy and Definition for Terms Related to On-Road Motor Vehicle Automated Driving Systems. The next three levels in the classification system are all based on vehicles with automated driving systems that monitor and respond to the environment.

As we continue the road to AI-enabled AVs, here are some other exciting details that are expected to emerge in the coming years:

Automotive self-diagnostics and maintenance
As automobiles become more like computers with wheels, they are increasingly becoming connected and, with artificial intelligence capabilities, will predictively identify maintenance needs. By combining data from advanced Internet of Things sensors, maintenance logs and other external sources, AI will help with better prediction and avoidance of machine failure, according to McKinsey. This could reduce maintenance costs by up to 10 percent.

Predii, a company that provides a platform that enables organizations greater efficiency for repairs and maintenance, predicts that connected cars will be a source of high-frequency data for predictive and proactive maintenance.

“The availability of continuous streams of data from vehicles will empower vehicle monitoring businesses which are responsible for continuous health checks of your vehicle or fleets of vehicles,” according to a white paper by Predii. “Intelligent repair solutions will monitor check engine lights, diagnostic trouble codes, symptoms and data from advanced driver assistance systems.”

Automated cars are programmed to obey laws
Imagine intelligent cars that can drive somebody home who has consumed too much alcohol. Or takes over the wheel if somebody falls asleep. One of the key predicted benefits of having AVs on our roadways is the reduction of traffic accidents. In 2017, there were an estimated 40,000 traffic fatalities in the U.S., with more than 90 percent of them caused by human error, according to the National Safety Council.

Self driving cars are far better than humans at obeying traffic laws, since they are programed to do so. They don’t text and drive, or drive under the influence of alcohol, or drive too fast, which makes them much safer than humans.

Government traffic planners are optimistic that AVs won’t go over the speed limit, which will produce more cohesive and calm roadways with fewer accidents, according to a report last year on speed limits by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Car Rental Companies become Self-Driving Car Fleet management operators
If a car can drive itself, do we really need to own our own vehicle? Can’t we call Uber to pick us up in one of their AV taxis? That’s the question posed by various automakers, technology and rental car companies, who envision a near future full of “robot taxis” through a ride sharing or rental car service. This “on-demand autonomous” vehicle is a vision of Michael Ableson, GM’s vice president of global portfolio planning and strategy. And it’s why GM paid $500 million for a stake and a strategic alliance in Lyft, the second biggest ridesharing service behind Uber. Ford isn’t far behind, since in August 2016 the company announced a “high-volume, fully autonomous vehicle for ride sharing” by 2021.

With a fleet of AVs, car-sharing companies are expected to have a coherent view of an AV fleet, monitor and manage it, detect issues and enforce policies. Operators can gather data of each individual vehicle including location, mileage, fuel consumption, driving behaviors and even if a door is left open. The AVs can then be remotely controlled to drive to service stations for repair and refueling.

Reroute traffic based on congestion, accidents, etc.
Google maps and other map-based apps have already helped road warriors find the shortest route possible to their destination. As AVs include greater connectivity, the AI behind it can gather data regarding traffic patterns, accidents and slows downs and appropriately — and automatically — reroute for optimal travel. This will help to ultimately lessen traffic congestion.

Tesla’s complete self-driving system will use GPS technology to find the optimal route to its given destination. If the car isn’t given a destination, it can check the owner’s calendar to determine the best destination or take the owner home.

Vehicles as “digital living environments”
It now takes the average U.S. worker 25 minutes to travel to work, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. AVs are expected to free up time for passengers to focus other tasks, including work, socializing, viewing entertainment, etc. Bosch has created a show car to display the company’s “digital living environment” inside AVs. It features large-surface monitors with the ability to have video conferences, display real-time traffic and weather information, email accessibility and entertainment options.

“Alongside the home and the office, the car will become the third living environment and a personal assistant,” said Bosch CEO Volkmar Denner.

Autonomous truck services
In October 2016, the world’s first successful autonomous truck delivery was completed when an Uber truck carried 50,000 cans of Budweiser beer over a distance of 120 miles from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs, CO. Now Uber’s autonomous trucks are delivering goods throughout Arizona. Other AV companies are following suit.

A report by the International Transport Forum claims autonomous delivery vehicles will save costs, lower emissions and improve road safety, compared with trucks operated by humans. New autonomous trucks will have the ability to perform a host of delivery duties including pick up garbage, deliver packages and food, and a numerous other services. All these services can be optimized through advanced logistics for traffic flow.

Public transportation safety and usage optimization
Public transportation also stands to benefit from the use of AVs and the associated logistics operations systems.

In Helsinki, Finland, trial is underway where an autonomous bus transports up to a dozen passengers at a time through a quarter-mile route with restaurants and saunas. The city is expected to expand the trial and provide autonomous bus services throughout the city, in order to measure customer response and basic operations data.

“There’s a lot of demand to solve the last-mile problem,” said Harri Santamala, the city’s project coordinator, referring to the challenge of transporting passengers from centralized transit hubs to their final destinations. “I think this is something we could do with automatic buses. On a real-time basis, we can adjust how they drive and where they make the connection. We’ve learned with this pilot that you can be flexible and synchronize with this technology. We could scale this up to the entire fleet.”

Metro Magazine suggests numerous benefits to a municipal transit system powered by autonomous buses:

  • Trip-planning information is integrated across modes and agencies (public and private), so the general public has the ability to evaluate their travel options with comprehensive information on travel time, cost, environmental impact, and more.
  • Real-time schedules for all transportation modes are centrally available.
  • Vehicles and transit schedules are “right-sized” so fleets are used effectively and there are no more empty buses.
  • Fare payment is made electronically and only one payment is needed for each whole trip.
  • Travel times are generally predictable and well-communicated.
  • Lower income and people with disability populations have access to all of these services.

The future of AVs are near
A world of intelligent vehicles is no longer a novel science fiction idea, but a near future. Passenger busses, taxis, personal vehicles, airplanes, trains and more are set to improve the way we get around. Ford, GE, Volkswagen, Audi, Toyota, Ford, BMW and Nissan are all hard at work creating and testing AVs they say will be road ready by 2020. And the U.S. Secretary of Transportation stated at the 2015 Frankfurt Auto show that he expects driverless cars to be in use all over the world within the next 10 years.

This AI-driven transportation revolution is expected to make our roadways safer, ease traffic congestions, make our transportation systems more efficient and make transportation more enjoyable. And, the trend toward urbanization might be reversed as AVs give people more time to work and be productive.

AI’s potential impact on transportation is immense. Advancements will continue to reshape the industry, how we drive, deliver and ship goods on earth and possibly in space in the future. Get ready to start your AI-powered engines.

 

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How AI is transforming healthcare

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Artificial intelligence (AI) will make a direct and immense impact on the healthcare field. Technology has already improved diagnostic accuracy, drug delivery, and patients’ medical records, and AI will only add to those breakthroughs. AI can mine medical records, design personalized treatment plans, handle administrative tasks to free up medical providers’ time for more meaningful tasks, and assist with medication management.

AI has already made headway in medicine, helping to do everything from processing x-ray images and detecting cancer to assisting doctors in diagnosing and treating patients. In fact, the global AI healthcare market is expected to reach $22,790 million by 2023.

And the general public is on board. According to a recent survey, 47% of people were comfortable with AI assisting doctors in the operating room. More than half of respondents over age 40 were willing to go under the knife with the help of technology, compared with only 40% under age 40. Additionally, six in ten participants (61%) were comfortable with their doctor using data from wearable devices, such as an Apple Watch or Fitbit, to assess their lifestyle and make recommendations based on that data.

So what healthcare areas will AI have an impact on in the next five to ten years?

Mining medical records

In our current age of big data, patient data is valuable. Often times, patients’ files are unorganized and mining their records to extract necessary medical insights can be a great challenge.

David Lindsay, founder of Philadelphia-based start-up, Oncora Medical, realized this struggle in radiation therapy. He and his team built a data analytics platform that helps doctors design sound radiation treatment plans for patients, personalizing each one based on their specific characteristics and medical history.

Virtual healthcare providers

AI is being used to detect emotional health issues as well. x2 developed a mental health chatbot, Tess, that delivers on-demand, psychological support. Tess coaches you through tough times to build resilience, by having text message conversations — in the same way a therapist would. The coping strategies Tess delivers are based on the emotions and concerns you express in your conversations.

Beyond Verbal is another example of a company utilizing AI to track emotional well-being. The emotions analytics company, developed a vocal biomarker to potentially help patients and their providers recognize patterns and better understand their healthcare needs.

Sensly boosts, Molly, a virtual health care assistant which dynamically generates speech, receives images and videos, and offers complete remote monitoring, with support for the common and high-cost conditions.

Drug development

Clinical trials can take more than a decade and cost millions of dollars. AI can play a part in speeding up the process of drug development, along with making it more cost effective.

GSK, a company that researches, develops, and manufactures innovative pharmaceutical medicines, vaccines, and consumer healthcare products, is active applying AI to its drug discovery arm. In fact, it created an in-house AI unit called “Medicines Discovered Using Artificial Intelligence.” In 2017, the company announced a partnership with Insilico, to identify novel biological targets and pathways.

Overall, AI can assist healthcare providers in managing their patients’ care more efficiently. I don’t believe AI will take healthcare jobs, but instead transform them. AI will provide the opportunity for healthcare works to take on higher impact jobs or at least offload their less desirable workload. AI will create growth and introduce more opportunities for the human workforce. It has the potential to automate mundane tasks, allowing humans to spend more time on more important tasks. If they can collaborate with the human workforce in hospitals and doctors’ offices, it will take care of the most important aspect of healthcare — improving patients’ experiences.

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Brains, brawn and big business: AI and robots reshape the workplace

Automation technology is moving into the workplace with unstoppable momentum. As bots and robots take on more kinds of tasks, will they eliminate jobs? Or will they instead generate opportunity for workers to leverage their own strengths and manage their tireless mechanical colleagues?

In today’s workforce a factory line worker, a university professor, and a customer service rep are guaranteed to have one thing in common: a job that will be transformed by the presence of robots and AI in the coming decade. Will that worker be able to change along with it?

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