GenAI, much ado about nothing or a technology game changer?

In 1950 Alan Turing asked a simple question in his paper Computing Machinery and Intelligence, “Can machines think?” The last seven decades of computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning advancements have responded to that question with a resounding “Yes.”

From IBM’s Deep Blue program to Teslas, Roombas, Siris, Alexas, and now ChatGPT and Bard, the advancements in AI have lived up to and surpassed many of Turing’s early musings. Yet we find ourselves at a pivotal point, wondering if this advancement will fundamentally change how we work, learn, design, write, live, and communicate for better or worse.

Generative AI (GenAI), an AI system capable of generating images, text, audio, video, code, and other media in response to prompts, has turned up the volume on this line of questioning as it challenges what and who we believe can create new things, and how valid and unbiased are the things created.

To understand the challenges and opportunities GenAI offers, it is important to know how we’ve gotten here.

Technology advancements have led us here

GenAI has been enabled by significant advancements in AI technology over recent decades. The first was the development of deep learning, a technique for “learning” inspired by how the brain works via neural networks. At the same time, there were advancements in graphics processing units (GPUs) which allowed for complex tasks to be rapidly broken down into smaller subtasks and continuously performed in tandem. While initially applied to gaming, the calculations used by AI models are very parallel in nature, making them ideal for GPUs.

This combination of deep learning and GPUs ushered in a new AI development and adoption era. Deep learning allowed us to develop new AI models that, in many cases, could surpass human capabilities–image and speech recognition, self-driving cars, fraud detection, virtual assistants, and more. GPUs gave us the computational capacity and scale to create these AI models.

The deep learning architecture continued to advance, which in 2017 led to the invention of transformer-based models that give AI the ability to “remember” by tracking relationships in sequential data like the words in a sentence. Because transformers can “remember” what they’ve “seen,” they can build on this to create new content, not just recognize a face or detect spam. As such, transformers and GPUs have ushered in a new era of AI, the era of Creative AI or GenAI, which is poised to become the next platform shift after personal computing, mobile, and the cloud.

Boundless opportunities

It can be argued that in the same way, the internet brought down the marginal cost of content distribution to $0, GenAI could do the same for content creation. That’s why some estimates show the global GenAI market reaching more than $110 Billion by 2030. Couple that with user demand (ChatGPT reached 1 million users in just five days) and the fact that it’s one of the fastest-growing open-source projects, there is a strong case that GenAI could usher in a sea of disruptive change on par with the internet.

From email copy creation to bug testing, customer support, movie making, legal assistance, and invoice automation, the possibilities of GenAI are unprecedented.

Here are a few recent examples of the transformative nature of this technology:

  • Travel: Expedia developed a GenAI travel advisor enabling travelers to ask for recommendations on where to go, where to stay, what to do, and more. So, if you are planning your next family vacation to Maui or looking for tee times at St. Andrews, let GenAI do some of the work for you.
  • Shopping: Walmart expects GenAI will “be as big a shift as mobile, in terms of how our customers are going to expect to interact with us.” They have already started to use GenAI in their Text to Shop, allowing customers to add Walmart products to their cart by texting or speaking the names of the items they need as if talking to a human retail assistant.
  • Education: At the Khan Lab School in Silicon Valley, a GenAI tutor named Khanmigo helps students move towards finding the right answers themselves.
  • Sports Commentator: IBM partnered with The Masters to have a GenAI commentator provide detailed golf narration for more than 20,000 video clips over the course of this year’s tournament.

Who will lead the pack?

We are still in the early days of GenAI, so it’s still being determined who will be the driving force in bringing this technology mainstream and how. While some big tech players like Microsoft, Google, Adobe, and Amazon are already starting to stake their claim, other incumbents and startups are lurking in the wings.

There are a variety of questions about how the competitive landscape will play out, including whether it will be dominated by proprietary models or open source, whether it will foster a whole new set of “GenAI First” applications (think Uber for mobile) or just make today’s applications smarter, and the level of verticalization we might see (or not) across the entire value chain. These all factor into what the competitive landscape might look like.

And given the disruptive potential of the technology, it is also attracting a huge number of new startups that hope to beat out incumbents in tried-and-true ways:

  • New market disruption — Go after customer needs not served by incumbents.
  • Low-end disruption — Go after customer needs not attractive to incumbents.
  • 10x better products — Create products so good incumbents can’t compete.

So how does this apply to GenAI?

  • GenAI is different from AI until now. It is 10x better technology, meaning it will enable 10x better startups. We’ve already seen 10x better products from “GenAI First” startups like OpenAI and Jasper.
  • Incumbents and startups will battle it out at both the platform and application levels. Attracting the talent needed will be key.

Application startups will be susceptible to co-option by incumbents (e.g., via adding and bundling). They will need to quickly create defensive moats via time-to-market and network effects, focusing on customer needs not served by incumbents and through innovative business models not attractive to incumbents.

Growing pains

While GenAI offers obvious opportunities, it comes with its pitfalls and detractors. There is still much to be known about how AI is trained. OpenAI only says that GPT-4 was pre-trained using both publicly available data (think internet data) and data licensed from third-party providers. The amount of data and where it comes from matters, as there are already copyright challenges, and it will be hard to fully rely on GenAI or, worse yet, deal with misinformation.

Deepfakes abound, from Tom Cruise to the Pope to former U.S. President Barack Obama. A deepfake video can show a politician or celebrity saying anything and be very convincing, as seen in the deepfake video below.

Deepfake video example

There are also legal hurdles and regulations that will certainly have to be overcome. Just recently, Italy’s data protection authority ordered OpenAI to stop processing local data for its ChatGPT generative AI chatbot. It argued that the company breached the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) regarding data access and protection of minors. Not to mention intellectual property and ethics concerns.

What does the future hold?

Just as we worked through the land minds of the early days of the internet, I expect we will do the same with GenAI. With the exponential increase in data coupled with compute performance, GenAI is likely on an exponential growth trajectory and will drive an accelerating pace of change in the world around us. As with any exponential change, humans could be better at predicting its future impact. Our brains aren’t used to thinking exponentially, and we tend to extrapolate linearly. As such, we consistently underestimate the impact of exponential technologies. The future will be on us before we know it, and we all need to prepare for it.

Companies need to proactively invest in understanding the technology and how it might impact their markets, customers, products, and operations. Maybe more importantly, how it could disrupt them and where it can be used to disrupt others.

As consumers, we should all invest time learning how to use it and understanding its limitations. It will soon become integral to nearly everything we do.

We shouldn’t be surprised or shocked by what comes next. GenAI will move quickly from the new kid on the block to an entirely new era of human-computer evolution. We will have AI doctors, AI lawyers, AI therapists, AI developers, AI artists and composers, AI actors, AI co-workers, and even AI friends. Some are even predicting this is a precursor to general artificial intelligence and digital lifeforms that will exist and evolve independently of humans, maybe even competing with us for the title of “dominant species” at some point in the future.

And, of course, legal and ethical pundits, governments, and the industry, in general, will need to collaborate closely to ensure the needed safeguards are in place.

Whatever happens, we should also remember that the future hasn’t happened yet, and we all get to create it.

Blog Futurism & Technology Trends Innovation

How technology is powering the future of the workforce

The pandemic has caused a shift in the way we work, with more people working from home than ever before. As we look to the future, it’s clear that technology will continue to transform how we work, both in and out of the office. Join us as we explore how technology has impacted the hybrid and remote workforce.

Increased productivity

Technology has played a crucial role in enhancing productivity while working from home. A Stanford University case study found that employees who worked from home for nine months were 13.5% more productive than their office counterparts. Another study by ConnectSolution found that 77% of remote workers say they’re more productive when working from home, with 30% doing more work in less time and 24% doing more work in the same period.

Technology has been instrumental in increasing productivity while working from home. With advancements in technology to revolutionize working from home, such as virtual and augmented reality, digital whiteboards, and advanced video conferencing tools, we can expect even more solutions to help remote teams work efficiently and effectively in the future.

HP is committed to helping the remote workforce by providing advanced technology solutions that enable seamless remote work. One example is our focus on providing home office tech for hybrid work success. With the rise of remote work due to the pandemic, HP has recognized the need for high-quality technology solutions to help workers transition between home and office environments. HP offers a range of products and services to support remote workers, including a powerful laptop like the HP Dragonfly Pro, the user-friendly HP 710 rechargeable wireless mouse, or an all-in-one printer like the HP ENVY 6000.

Video conferencing boom

Over the past three years, video conferencing has restructured how we work from home, enabling us to stay connected with our colleagues despite being physically distant. With the increased use of technologies like Zoom and Microsoft Teams, people can now conduct face-to-face meetings, collaborate on projects, and attend training sessions without being in the same room. Video conferencing has made remote work more manageable and reduced the isolation many remote workers face.

A study by HP Tech Ventures portfolio partner Owl Labs found that 71% of remote workers find it easier to present on a video call than in person and feel more connected to their team when they use video conferencing. By seeing each other’s faces and body language, employees can build stronger relationships and better understand each other’s perspectives, improving teamwork and productivity. Moreover, video conferencing has eliminated the need for long commutes and allows people to save time and focus on their work. Another study by Axios found that working from home saved workers around the world an average of 72 minutes in commute time every day in 2021 and 2022, leading to improved work-life balance and higher job satisfaction.

Streamlined communication and collaboration have been vital to keeping remote teams functioning smoothly. Technology has provided employees with a level of interaction never seen before. The influx of technology allows for effective employee engagement and entirely transforms communication norms. Video conferencing has become crucial in making remote work more manageable and connected. As more companies adopt remote work policies, video conferencing will continue to be vital for maintaining productivity, staying connected, and fostering teamwork.

HP acquired Poly last year, reinforcing our commitment to helping the remote workforce by providing advanced technology solutions that enable seamless remote work. We’re leveraging our combined strengths with Poly to create a unique, pro-grade experience for hybrid workers. According to a study by Lifesize, video conferencing leads to productivity for 94% of companies. As video conferencing is paramount for hybrid work, we are excited to see how HP will incorporate Poly into its software and PC offerings. The Poly Studio Room Kits for Microsoft Teams Rooms can now be paired with the Microsoft Teams-certified HP Mini Conferencing PC with Microsoft Teams Rooms to deliver a complete solution experience for meeting rooms of any size.

Ctrl + Alt + Secure

As more people work remotely, cybersecurity has become a significant concern. Cybercriminals are constantly looking for new ways to exploit vulnerabilities and gain access to sensitive information. Companies and employees must work together to fend off cyber threats. Between 2008 and 2021, the FBI recorded a 207% increase in cybercrime reports, with losses hitting almost $7 billion last year. HP Wolf Security’s Evolution of Cybersecurity report also details the rise of cybercrime and the importance of implementing advanced security measures.

As employees are often the last line of defense in an attempted cyber-attack, it is critical to equip them with the knowledge to recognize when such an attack occurs and what steps they should take to mitigate the threat. One of the most significant cybersecurity risks associated with remote work is using unsecured networks. According to the Norton Cyber Security Insights Report, 49% of people in the U.S. never use a virtual private network (VPN) when they connect to public Wi-Fi. To protect against this risk, remote workers should use a VPN to encrypt their data and prevent it from being intercepted. To minimize the risk of a data breach, remote workers should ensure that their devices are equipped with up-to-date antivirus software and that all software and operating systems are regularly patched and updated.

Overall, cybersecurity is critical when working from home. Remote workers should be aware of the risks associated with remote work and take appropriate measures to protect their devices and data. By using secure networks, regularly updating software, and utilizing strong passwords, remote workers can help minimize the risk of a cyberattack and ensure that sensitive data remains safe and secure.

Technology is transforming how we work from home, with increased productivity, improved collaboration, and advanced cybersecurity measures. As we continue to adapt to a new way of working, it’s clear that technology will play a vital role in ensuring that remote workers can work effectively and securely.

Source: HP
Blog Futurism & Technology Trends Innovation

6 gaming companies to watch this year

Gaming continues to be a hot topic this year as startups innovate for the world’s 3 billion gamers. From haptic clothing that lets you feel your games to technology that adds smell to your virtual reality experiences, here are the top gaming startups to watch this year:

Mobalytics

How they’re changing the game

Mobalytics, (we’re biased; it is an HP Tech Ventures portfolio company) is an AI-powered personal gaming assistant that helps gamers conquer their favorite games. As the first personal performance analytics for competitive gamers, the platform analyzes players’ performance over many sessions and, helps them define their weaknesses and strengths, and provides personalized advice on improving their aim, strategy, teamwork, etc.

Why we’re watching

We admire Mobalytics’ bold vision to help all gamers reach their full potential, and their founder and CEO, Bogdan Suchyk, embodies that spirit by leading as though nothing is impossible.

Avalon

How they’re changing the game

Avalon is revolutionizing how games and virtual experiences are built. Founded by pioneers and leaders from games including EverQuest, Call of Duty, Diablo, God of War, Assassin’s Creed, and Elden Ring, Avalon is building a new interoperable universe.

Why we’re watching

With a comprehensive and extensive background in games, Avalon solves problems that will face creators and designers in the near future and is building the tools and framework that will allow them to do so.

Parsec

How they’re changing the game

Parsec, an HP Tech Ventures that exited to Unity, has a proprietary desktop capturing application perfect for any graphically intense applications in game development, broadcast, media and entertainment, architecture, engineering, and construction.

Why we’re watching

Optimized for low latency, high framerate, and security, Parsec enables gamers to stream video game footage through an Internet connection. It allows users to run a game on one computer but play it remotely through another device, which has proven a winning formula for professionals and gamers with high-end compute needs.

Tangle

How they’re changing the game

Tangle is a virtual space for teams to connect and collaborate. A central hub for remote communications, Tangle enables customers to grow a thriving remote work culture that teams love.

Why we’re watching

Where gaming and hybrid work meet, Tangle offers avatars and other fun features to make remote work a unique and enjoyable experience. Users can project their personality yet still protect their privacy while also communicating to colleagues their openness to collaborate vs. the need to focus. Sort of like closing or opening that office when people had private offices with a lot more useful features and gradations.

Runway

How they’re changing the game

Runway’s mission is to make content creation accessible to all. They’re taking recent advancements in computer graphics and machine learning to push the boundaries of creativity and lower the barriers to content creation.

Why we’re watching

Runway offers a broad toolset for art generation and supplements another long-time favorite or ours, user-generated content. The platform is forming the next generation of generative AI tools as it embodies a spectrum of tools, e.g., text input of course, but easy-to-use editing, personalized data set training…

Scenario

How they’re changing the game

Scenario enables artists and game developers to create their own image generators trained on the specific style of their games. Starting with specific training data should enable creators to rapidly iterate and go much faster than trying to develop everything from scratch themselves.

Why we’re watching

Regardless of the level of technical expertise, game developers can create custom generators capable of producing entirely new game assets consistent with a given style.

We’re looking forward to seeing the innovations these gaming and eSports startups deliver this year.

Blog Futurism & Technology Trends Innovation

Augmented Reality: The gateway to the future

Several exciting technologies are at the center of discussions about the future, from virtual reality (VR) and the metaverse to 5G and artificial intelligence (AI). While these emerging technologies are expected to disrupt our daily lives eventually, most of them must still overcome significant obstacles before mass adoption is plausible. However, augmented reality (AR) could bridge the gap between the present and the future due to its increased accessibility and interactivity.

First, what is AR?

AR is the integration of virtual objects into the real world. In an AR experience, users can interact with virtual features that are overlaid in the real world, in real-time. These virtual items are accurately rendered within the real physical environment to create a believable experience for users. While VR creates an entirely simulated world, AR alters the perception of the real world with its added elements, which can include visual, haptic, auditory, and olfactory components.

The current state of AR

AR is far from perfect and still has many issues to iron out, but its growth is possible alongside its adoption. AR does not necessarily require more than a smartphone to function. This differentiates it from technologies like VR that require specific gear and virtual environments, which limits adoption until its framework is fully resolved. VR headsets can be somewhat uncomfortable and can cause eyestrain and motion sickness. While developers are addressing those concerns, there is also the issue of true immersion. One of the main benefits of VR over AR is its promise of total immersion into virtual worlds and scenarios. Technologies that would support that capability exist, such as haptics and omnidirectional treadmills, but they are still a growing sector and difficult to afford for the average consumer. An ever-improving AR app on your smartphone is far easier to adopt than expensive VR gear that takes you to limited virtual experiences and currently incomplete worlds. By introducing AR to consumers on devices they already own, it could become easier to encourage them to adopt fully fleshed-out AR and VR technologies down the line.

AR is currently used in applications like mobile, retail, healthcare, and education. Mobile applications include popular games, like PokemonGOAmon, and Angry Birds AR; visualizer apps that allow you to place furniture or change the color of your home’s walls, like DecorateAR and Paint Tester; and social media apps like Snapchat and TikTok. Retail AR saw significant growth during the COVID-19 lockdown. Many brands embraced different virtual try-on technologies, from IKEA Studio to ASOS’ “See My Fit” to Kohl’s virtual closet on Snapchat. AR in healthcare is currently focused on medical imaging technologies that improve surgical planning and outcomes, such as HP Tech Ventures’ partner Surgical Theater, which uses AR, VR, and 3D technologies to provide a precise visualization platform for surgeons and medical students. For non-medical education, AR apps like Elements 4D and JigSpace help students learn important concepts through immersive visualization.

The future of AR

In the future, AR applications will see both improvement and innovation. The AR market is expected to grow at an impressive compound annual growth rate of 40+% from 2022 to 2030. Already existing technologies, like the above apps, will improve, expand, and become easier to use and access. New and emerging technologies, like AR glasses, smart lenses, holograms, and the metaverse, will enable AR’s further expansion and adoption. AR glasses and smart lenses are already in progress, with companies like Apple and Nreal working to create comfortable and fully functional AR glasses. HP Tech Ventures’ portfolio company Mojo Vision is also working on smart contact lenses and recently reached an incredible milestone with the first-ever on-eye demonstration of a feature-complete AR smart contact lens.

Holograms, powered by AR goggles, glasses, or contact lenses, are another potential technology innovators are beginning to explore. As our world embraces hybrid and remote work, hologram meetings could become the new norm. 3D holographic displays could also become another feature of the future of work. And in our personal lives, board games of the near future could see a holographic boost, with companies like Tilt Five creating holographic AR versions of popular games like Settlers of Catan.

Finally, AR technologies will play a significant role in adopting the metaverse. While many envision the metaverse as a fully immersive experience enabled by VR headsets, there is a growing belief that AR will be a more palatable gateway, augmenting our existing world rather than replacing it with a virtual one. Perhaps more likely is the existence of two metaverses: one enabled by AR and the other by VR, with possible entry points between them.

The importance of AR boils down to one essential factor: accessibility. Incredible strides have been — and will continue to be made — with several emerging technologies, however mass adoption cannot occur if the average consumer can’t access them. Allowing consumers to interact with the metaverse and related technologies through devices they own will shorten the adoption time and onboarding process for future devices. This makes AR the perfect gateway to VR, the metaverse, and many future technologies.

Blog Innovation

How weak signals can help you stay ahead of the next wave of innovation

A crucial ingredient for any successful business is understanding the trends shaping the world around us and that point to future opportunities.

If you miss these shifts, you risk being disrupted and, worse, going out of business. But if you can catch these potential trends early and capitalize on them, they instead mean growth and opportunity.

Catching these subtle changes early isn’t easy, however. All world-changing shifts don’t just magically appear, they start as weak signals, and you must look for them. A weak signal is very early evidence of a potential future mainstream trend. Given the very early nature of these signals, they may or may not actually become a trend. But identifying and monitoring weak signals over time is integral to getting in on new trends early. Sometimes this can be the difference between catching a new wave and leading this change or getting left behind.

As futurists, we want to be the disrupters, not those being disrupted. To do that, we need to constantly observe society and the world around us to find these new trends and weak signals.

Here are eight weak signals that our team is watching for future impact.

Eco-consumerism

Consumers are becoming more aware of how their consumption contributes to climate change, and this is changing their buying behaviors accordingly. As consumers become more eco-friendly, they’re putting pressure on brands to do the same by repurposing waste, using biodegradable materials, and prioritizing renewable resources. Companies that don’t embrace sustainability or give back to the planet in some way risk losing the support of consumers. With 77% of consumers concerned about the environmental impact of the products they buy, that’s a large demographic to risk losing.

Here’s a look at eco-consumerism at play:

  • These bio-concrete tiles are made with Japanese knotweed and American signal crayfish, two invasive species in the UK that would otherwise be considered waste. They also reduce carbon emissions caused by traditionally made concrete.
  • These running shoes from Zen Running Club are made entirely from plant-based materials, resulting in a fully biodegradable shoe.
  • Molded fiber, an eco-friendly packaging alternative, is gaining momentum. Once a time-consuming process, recent innovations like HP’s Molded Fiber Advanced Tooling Solution are accelerating the adoption of more sustainable packaging.

Rise of reality

While we are still living highly digital lives, and there is significant hype surrounding a potentially virtual future in the metaverse, there is also a growing need for a return to reality. After the lockdown portion of the pandemic, many of us are ready to return to physical spaces, travel, and in-person entertainment to escape Zoom fatigue and tech burnout. As more people crave unplugging over new online experiences, it will be critical for new technologies to enhance our physical experiences and interactions. Even further, tech companies are responsible for improving their products to battle burnout and enhance user experience.

Here’s a look at the rise of reality at play:

  • AiFi, an HP Tech Ventures portfolio company, offers AI-powered autonomous retail solutions, making shopping a seamless experience for consumers and retailers.
  • To address tech fatigue, many tech companies could provide time-limit features or recommend breaks to users. Other companies are getting even more creative, like these hologram startups aiming to make remote meetings feel less impersonal.
  • Location-based VR experiences, powered by technologies like HP’s VR backpack, allow users to blend the virtual with reality.

Distributed enterprise

In a recent HP Wolf Security report, 46% of office workers admitted using their work devices for personal tasks, and 69% claimed to have used their personal devices for work activities. This overlap between work and personal devices has been exacerbated by the increase in remote work, which has further blurred the line between consumer and enterprise. Enterprise products and services are being increasingly distributed across smaller home offices rather than large company headquarters. This has significant implications for cybersecurity and maintenance and could contribute to feature changes.

Here’s a look at distributed enterprise at play:

  • With the era of hybrid work upon us, there is a growing need for devices connecting home and corporate offices. Solutions like HP Presence provide powerful collaboration tools to reinvent how people connect.
  • Employees and companies can better protect their data from cybercriminals by embracing decentralized cybersecurity. Approaches like zero trust security are gaining popularity, with 78% of firms planning to adopt zero trust in 2022.
  • Remote maintenance is not entirely new, but it’s increasingly essential as remote work grows. Advanced remote management technologies, like NVIDIA’s Fleet Command, are working to optimize processes for global IT professionals.

Omniscient health

As people continue to be hyper-conscious of their health, there has been significant growth in health-related technologies ranging from wearable devices to AI-powered diagnostics. Wearables like fitness trackers have become smarter and more powerful, so users are gaining greater insight into their health. Health providers can use this new data, paired with the power of AI, to aid in their care. Microfluidics could also enable faster, less invasive, and more accurate diagnostics. As monitoring our health becomes part of our daily routine, chronic issues could be caught sooner, leading to more proactive care.

Here’s a look at omniscient health at play:

  • Using data from continuous wearable sensors, physiQ generates personalized and actionable insights for patients and their healthcare providers.
  • For people with chronic illnesses, health monitoring tools are essential. Fortunately, many startups are working to create more straightforward and less invasive health monitoring methods, such as BOYDSense, which developed a breath-based glucose level monitor for those with diabetes.
  • Using microfluidics, researchers at Northwestern developed a sticker that absorbs and uses sweat to accurately diagnose cystic fibrosis in newborns. Another research team from the University of Minnesota has also created a new microfluidic chip that could provide point-of-care diagnostics.

Internet of energy

At our current rate, global energy consumption is set to see a 50% increase between 2020 and 2050. With the growing volume of data, demand for clean energy, and increasing adoption of emerging technologies, a new energy system may be critical. Antiquated energy infrastructure, like electrical grids, cannot keep up with technology advancements and energy demands. The Internet of Energy may be the best solution, as it can reduce inefficiencies, limit waste, and maximize the potential of existing infrastructures. It could also lead to the adoption of smart grid technology, which would hugely benefit users and energy consumption.

Here’s a look at the internet of energy at play:

  • Smart panels from startups like Span balance home electricity use to avoid overloading utility grids.
  • Packetized Energy, recently acquired by EnergyHub, is a software platform aggregating energy devices such as water heaters, HVAC systems, electric vehicle chargers, solar inverters, and distributed batteries into dispatchable and flexible grid resources.
  • General Electric (GE) launched a startup, Current, which pairs LEDs and solar panels with software. This allows the system to gather data to apply insights to corporate operations to increase lighting and productivity savings.

Geospatial AI

The increasing number of satellites and improved image quality provides a plethora of data that, combined with supercomputing, allows Geospatial AI (GEOAI) to extract and impart impactful insights. This integration of geospatial studies and AI helps machine learning mimic human spatial reasoning and dynamics to better understand environmental and geographical impacts. This could lead to hyper-local and instantaneous weather forecasting, real-time wildfire detection, and other capabilities that could make environmental conservation and planning more seamless.

Here’s a look at GEOAI at play:

  • Google’s Machine Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting from Radar Images performs weather forecasting using real-time data instead of hours-old data.
  • The city of Boston will use data from satellites in the TreeTect pilot to improve tree equity and anticipate tree maintenance tasks.
  • Scientists from Stanford University developed a deep-learning model that maps fuel moisture levels across 12 of the US’ Western states, making it easier to predict where wildfires are likely to ignite and spread.

Transportation transformation

Growing concern for pollution and congestion is leading to disruptive innovation in transportation technology, policy, and infrastructure, which will radically change how we transport people and things in the future. Crowded freeways, slow delivery times, and an urgency to counteract climate change all demand revolutionary change in the transportation industry.

Urban transportation is central to the effort to slow climate change, with plenty of opportunities for growth and innovation. Home to more than half the world’s population, cities account for more than two-thirds of global carbon dioxide emissions. Transportation is often the most prominent and fastest-growing source of emissions and is the U.S.’ second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Here’s a look at transportation transformation at play:

  • Though not quite a reality yet, the idea of a hyperloop has long captivated society, with companies like Virgin and The Boring Company working towards its creation. The technology exists to create the ultra-fast transportation concept, but there are still significant hurdles to overcome.
  • TuSimple has created autonomous trucks, which promise improved safety, efficiency, and sustainability. Its trucks allegedly shaved 10 hours off a 24-hour run.
  • Florence has implemented smart trams, which could shape future transportation for other European cities.

3D-printed electronics

Advances in 3D printing technology that allow for voxel-level specification of materials, combined with improvements in metal substrates, will enable electronic components to be printed at the same time as durable parts, rather than being added as a separate assembly step after printing. These capabilities could allow electronic devices to be 3D-printed on demand as all-in-one elements, with no assembly required. This would minimize production costs and time and create an opportunity to reduce the size and weight of electronics.

Here’s a look at 3D-printed electronics at play:

  • Japanese CAD and 3D printing company SOLIZE uses HP 3D printers to make out-of-production spare parts for NISMO, the motorsport division of Nissan
  • Optomec’s Aerosol Jet printing technology enables 3D-printed electronics using aerodynamic focusing.
  • Nano Dimension’s Dragonfly IV 3D printer can generate entire circuits in one step.
  • Researchers at the University of Florida have developed a method of printing copper on fabric, a milestone for wearable electronics.

Considering the state of our world, futuristic thinking is a necessary skill we all need to learn and practice. With the constant and rapid pace of change, everyone should be honing their futurist skills. And thinking like a futurist isn’t reserved for a select group of people. It is a fundamental skill set that anyone can learn.

This is not something all of us do naturally, though. Only a small percent of the population thinks and plans for the future. In fact, only 35% of Americans regularly think about their five-year future. Those who aren’t thinking of their futures are disadvantaged over those who do. If we want to stay one step ahead in our fast-paced world, and if we’re going to move forward and create the future we want, we must adopt long-term, futuristic thinking.

To help you get started, here are three essential practices that I have found very useful in my career as a futurist:

  1. Monitor shifts — Pay attention and understand what’s happening in the world around you. Notice the small changes that create new needs. Keep an eye on these weak signals and any others that appear.
  2. Visualize future outcomes — Start with your vision for the future and work backward from there, not the other way around. What was the catalyst for your vision of the future?
  3. Adopt an innovative mindset — Have a “can do” attitude and be unstoppable. Embrace everything as a learning opportunity, even failure.

The more you think like a futurist, the better you can create the future you want.

Which of these weak signals are you interested in? Any others you are monitoring? Share your thoughts with me in the comments.

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My top 5 leadership principles

Leadership is constantly evolving to meet the demands of the times. To thrive as leaders, we must understand the needs of our teams and adapt accordingly. There are, however, some leadership principles that I have found to be essential no matter the situation.

1. Be humble. Leaders who place too much focus on results and control rather than the people on their team can create trust issues. Employees may feel restricted in their abilities to explore new ideas or even fearful of disappointing their boss. When teams operate out of fear, there can be several consequences, from a lack of engagement to high turnover. One Gallup study even found that one in two U.S. adults have left a job to escape a bad manager.

Because of this, leaders must embrace humility in their approach. While it is essential to hit targets and goals, the leader’s role is to help their team learn, grow, and explore without fear of failure. Leaders can benefit from their team’s expertise, experience, and insight by serving their employees rather than controlling them.

Ask your team how you can help them do their jobs and encourage them to experiment with innovative approaches and ideas. Create a safe environment for them to take risks and chances. Recognize that, even though you might be leading a team or organization, you are still a member of a team, and the best results will come from working together to find solutions and stay productive.

As my Mum used to remind me, we all put our pants on the same way. As human beings, we are all equal, and just because I might be the leader of a team doesn’t make me any better or less equal than anyone else in the team, no matter what they do. For me being humble means treating everyone as an equal and doing everything I can to help everyone else realize that we are all in this together as equals.

“The leader’s role is to help their team learn, grow, and explore without fear of failure.”

2. Treat everyone with respect and dignity. It’s essential to treat every person in your team and your company with respect and dignity. Each employee plays a vital role in how your business functions from the top of your organizational hierarchy to the bottom. How you treat them matters.

This principle highlights the importance of prioritizing diversity and inclusion. For leaders to encourage their employees to bring their whole selves to work, they must create an environment where people from all backgrounds feel accepted and valued. The benefits of a diverse and inclusive workplace are clear. Diverse teams consistently outperform those with less diversity, and employees on inclusive teams are 5.4 times more likely to stay at their company.

Treating everyone with respect and dignity can create a company culture that ensures employees feel heard and valued. In turn, this can encourage loyalty, productivity, and motivation. But that’s not why this is important, it’s important because it’s the right thing to do, and the right way to treat the people around us.

3. The team is always more important than the individual. No matter how talented, educated, or skilled an individual may be, nothing compares to the success of teamwork. By building a team with complementary skills, a leader can create a well-rounded approach to innovation where the team can learn from each other.

When appropriately used, collaboration is a powerful tool that can significantly improve outcomes compared to individual work. In addition, a Deloitte study found that employees that engage in collaboration and use digital collaboration tools are 17% more satisfied at work. While individuals may get tasks done independently, there is an increased risk of burnout and lower-quality results.

Leaders need to encourage open communication to enable teams to work together. Clear expectations and structure can also be helpful, such as assigning responsibilities to specific team members and designating particular times and methods of collaboration.

I remember many times in my career when I had no idea how we were ever going to achieve a particularly challenging goal or objective. Something that at first glance appeared impossible or completely unreasonable. But then something happens. Someone has an idea that triggers another idea, that leads to a first step, that leads to a second step, that creates a momentum that starts to take on a life of its own. The mood starts to change to a “We can do this!” and a palpable sense of excitement starts to build. There is a point in this process where the team shifts from a group of individuals to a thriving, thrumming “We can do anything!” functional unit that elevates everyone in it to achieve things they never thought possible. Things that could never be achieved by an individual or even a group of individuals – things that only a true team can achieve. If you’ve ever experienced that feeling, you know what I’m talking about.  

“A team is more than a group of individuals; it is also the energy that is released when true teamwork happens that elevates everyone involved.”

4. Have fun! Boredom is not a corporate objective. If you’ve seen the movie Office Space, you know how soul-sucking a boring (albeit fictional) office job can be. While the cult film is a satirical, darkly comedic take on corporate life in the 90s, it can also be a cautionary tale against boredom and monotony at work.

For leaders, it is crucial to know when and how to have fun. Happy employees are healthier, more creative, and more productive overall. So, what can leaders do to create a more fun work environment?

One way to promote more fun is to create experiences that allow team members to get to know each other and interact outside of a work setting. These experiences can be as formal as a monthly virtual happy hour or dinner, or as informal as a weekly group lunch or virtual coffee chat to catch up on life outside of work. While planning events like these can be a great way to create structured fun, simpler methods include encouraging employees to share photos, stories about their vacations, work-appropriate memes, and pictures of their latest golf outings in group messages or recognizing team members for big and small achievements.

Another way to promote more fun is to just have more fun. I also like to say, “We’re not here for a long time, we’re here for a good time”. Life’s too short to take too seriously. Having fun at work doesn’t mean we’re not working hard; it just means we’re having more fun working hard.

5. Pay attention to the details – the small things matter. Leaders are often tasked with directing their team towards one final, all-encompassing goal. While this is important, it can sometimes lead to the dismissal of small but crucial details. Achieving one significant goal results from many small achievements that occur along the way, and each one is as important as the next.

For leaders, this puts them in the unique position of needing to keep both the big picture and the details top of mind. For this reason, it’s crucial to have solid organizational skills and a reliable team that you can delegate to as needed. Remain dedicated to the end goal while maintaining a broad understanding of what each team member is doing to succeed. Trust your team and avoid micromanaging but know when to step in as a leader to help push things forward.

These five leadership principles have helped me throughout my career as a leader, and I hope they serve you on your journey.

Have a leadership principle that you believe to be essential for leaders to know? Share it in the comments.

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Empathy’s Role in Leadership

When you picture an effective leader, what comes to mind?

A deep understanding of their industry, self-awareness, decision-making skills, integrity, transparency, and being empathetic are some of the things that come to my mind. Leaders with a high degree of emotional intelligence earn the trust of and inspire their team to reach their full potential.

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5 lessons I learned from the Kokoda Track

I recently completed the Kokoda Track with a group of my oldest and best friends. For those of you who don’t know, the Track is a historical trail in Papua New Guinea. When I was preparing for my trip to Kokoda, I knew that I was in for a long journey full of challenges. An eight-day trek on difficult terrain was bound to test me. It was also bound to teach me important lessons that I could take back to everyday life. So, without further ado, here are the most important lessons I learned while powering through the Kokoda Track:

1. Be prepared.

As I previously talked about, I committed to preparing for this trip. I knew it was going to test me physically and mentally, and I wanted to give myself the best possible tools and training to get me through it successfully. I hiked long miles on weekends and did hours of research on the best gear to take and what to expect on the Track. By doing this, I made sure that I was well-prepared for the different obstacles that I might face. Training ahead of time was key to my success on the Track and researching what I was in for made sure I didn’t underestimate the difficult roads ahead.

This is a lesson easily applicable to business and entrepreneurship. When you’re vying for success, prepare for success. This isn’t always the same as making detailed plans ahead of time, plans always change, but being prepared is also key to being able to adapt to unexpected changes or roadblocks to achieve your objective. When walking into an important meeting or launching a new start-up, make sure that you’ve put in the work to be successful.

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2. Choose your team well.

I was very lucky to be surrounded by some of my oldest and closest friends on this trek, so when any one of us was struggling, we knew we could turn to each other for support and motivation. To have that support is an essential part of success in any aspect of life, so when times get tough, make sure you’re doing it with the right team.

People often say that you are the average of the five people you spend the most time with. Are you surrounding yourself with the right people? Whether it’s in business or your personal life, you want to make sure that you have a support system that is empowering.

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3. Don’t be afraid of hard times.

It’s natural to want to avoid difficult times, but it’s in those moments that you experience the most growth. Embrace those moments and use them to build a stronger, better team. Throughout the trek, each of us went through struggles and doubts, but as the trek went on, we became closer because we were able to rely on one another.

Hard times can always teach you something. When you’re going through something rough, take a moment to think about what you’re learning. How can you apply this to future situations? How can this make you a better version of yourself? Embrace that learning and use it to improve.

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4. Balance

Though our journey was extremely physically challenging, it was also very mentally challenging. It was crucial to spend time getting centered before setting off on each day’s trek. Achieving and maintaining that level of balance was a constant battle, and it’s important to pace yourself.

Do you take time each day to check in with yourself? Would you consider yourself in balance? If not, try starting your morning with a brief morning meditation or just find some quiet time during the day to center yourself. There a number of resources that can help you with this, like Headspace, Calm, and Ten Percent Happier. A strong, healthy mindset is important to taking on any new challenge.

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5. Celebrate success.

When we walked through the end of the Kokoda arches, it was very emotional. We looked back on what we’d accomplished and truly took a moment to reflect on what we’d just been through. It was a huge achievement that we’d managed together, and we congratulated each other on our success. Then, we got beers.

Don’t be afraid to celebrate your successes, big or small. Every day is full of challenges, and with the right mindset you can crush them all. So be sure to treat yourself and your team when you reach new milestones, and then get excited for the next one!

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What’s the biggest challenge you’ve faced and how did you handle it? I’d love to hear about it in the comments!

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How I manage my to-do list with email: Part 2

In Part 1 I outlined a way to make sure:

  • You have a reliable way to archive all your email so you never have to worry about deleting an email again.
  • You have a way to unclutter your inbox.
  • You have a way to process your inbox.
  • You have a way to track everything you delegate and everything you are ‘waiting for’ via a Pending folder.

In this post I want to outline how to manage and track all of your next actions so you never have to worry about dropping the ball again.

As mentioned previously, efficiently processing your inbox involves doing one of four things with each email:

  • Read and delete. No action needed.
  • Do. If I think it will take me less than 2 mins to respond to an email, I will do it then and there and then delete.
  • Delegate. Forward and ask someone to do something based on the email, and then delete.  As per my previous post on this topic, remember to copy yourself when you delegate over email so you have a list of everything you’re waiting on someone for in your Pending folder!
  • Queue up for next action needed. These are the emails I need to spend more time on, and that I haven’t been able to delete, delegate or do within the 2 mins rule.

The focus of this post is on that last point, how to queue up things for next action needed.

One of the core tenants of “Getting Things Done” is to group all your next actions by context.  For example, there might be some things you can only do when you are at home.  When you’re not at home you don’t need to see those next actions because there’s nothing you can do about them.  However, when you are at home you do want to see them, because in that context (“I’m at home”) all of those next actions are fair game for follow-up.  Grouping all your next actions by context helps you focus on only the things you can do in that moment, without distracting yourself with all the things you can’t do in that moment.

Constructing Contexts

Everyone will have a different set of contexts they want to work across (see below for mine).  The trick here is to define those contexts in a way that makes sense for you and are as simple as possible.  It is also important to define them in such a way that each next action only goes into one context.  This keeps the overhead of managing next actions by context to a minimum. Here are mine:

Calls Calls I need to make when I have the time and am with my phone (typically when I’m driving)
Work Things I can only do when I’m physically at the office
Home Things I can only do when I’m physically at home
Errands Things I can only do when I’m out and about, typically near where I live
Laptop Things I need to do when I’m at my laptop (or on my phone)
Read Things I need to read
Agenda Things I need to talk to someone about in person or at an upcoming meeting
Someday Things not important to me now, but worth considering ‘someday’ when I have the time

The way that I implement this for my email is  by creating an email folder for each ‘context’ and then moving each ‘next action’ from my inbox to that folder.

Here are a few examples:

  • A friend emails me and wants to catch up. I simply drag the email from my inbox into my Call folder.
  • My wife emails me and asks if I can pick up paper towels. Into the Errands folder.
  • My colleague emails me and requests I review a presentation. Into the Laptop folder.
  • Someone sends me an interesting article on Vegemite. Into the Read folder it goes.
  • My boss emails me and says he wants to talk about an upcoming site visit. Into the Agenda folder for when I meet with him next.
  • Someone emails me to recommend walking the Kokoda Trail in Papua New Guinea but I don’t have time to think about it now. Into the Someday folder. (More to come on that, later!)

Hopefully you get the idea.

Later, when I find myself out and about driving to the grocery store, I check my Errands folder and go buy paper towels.

When I meet with my boss I go to my Agendas folder to remind myself of all the things I need to speak with him about.

When I have a spare moment, I hit my Read folder for all the catch up reading I need to do, including how to make Vegemite at home.

Then, when I’m done with all my projects and have time to breathe, I check my Someday folder for new things to do.

Never drop the ball again.

Creating a Code

Now, the above works great when you are receiving emails and taking action on them, but what if you want to create and manage next actions for things not associated with an email you have received?  For example, you think of something you need to do at home, or you think of something you want to read.  How do you get those next actions into your email system?  Here’s what I do.

Let’s take a ‘work’ next action as an example.  If I want to remind myself to print a presentation the next time I’m in the office, I simply send myself an email with a Subject of “Print out presentation $w”.  I have a rule that looks for emails from myself with a “$w” in the subject line, and which then automatically moves that email into my Work folder.  Voila!  Next time I’m in the office I check my Work folder and there’s my next action to print out the presentation.

To break this down further, for each context:

  • Come up with a code you can put in the Subject for any next action you want to automatically move to the folder for that context.
  • Create a rule for the context that will look for that code as part of the Subject and then do the move.

For the example above the rule would look like this:

See below for the codes I use for all the contexts mentioned above.  All you need to do now is to create a rule for each code that is exactly the same as for the work example above, but with the corresponding code for each context.

Calls $c
Work $w
Home $h
Errands $e
Laptop $l
Read $r
Agenda $a
Someday $s

With the above in place you can also handle the following scenarios:

  • Someone sends you an email to ask you for something, and when you respond to say, “I’m on it!” you tag the subject with “$l” so your ‘next action’ is automatically put in your Laptop folder for follow-up. This saves you from having to respond AND manually moving the original email to Laptop yourself.  Yes, it’s only a few extra steps, but over the course of a day or a week or a year it all adds up.  And these posts are all about being an email ninja, not an email grasshopper. 🙂


Final Reminders

Now, just two more things and we’re done, but these are very important to remember.

First, the ordering of your rules in your email system matters.  It’s important that the first rule is the rule to move all received emails to your Received folder.  This ensures you will continue to archive all received emails as explained in my first post.  Then come the rules to manage context based next actions as explained above.  Finally, the last rule should be the rule to manage Pending emails; those emails you copy yourself on when you want to track or monitor that something gets done.  Ordering your rules in this way ensures they are applied in the right order so that the system works.

Second, you will need to update your Pending rule so that it doesn’t also move all these next action emails to your Pending folder.  To do this, simply exclude all these emails from the rule as shown below.

That’s it!  You now have a way to track next actions by context.  Whenever you complete a next action you can simply delete it out of the context folder and move on to the next one!

At this point:

  • You have a reliable way to archive all your email so you never have to worry about deleting an email again.
  • You have a way to unclutter your inbox.
  • You have a way to process your inbox.
  • You have a way to track everything you delegate and everything you are ‘waiting for’ via a Pending folder.
  • You have a way to track next actions by context.

Stay tuned for part 3 on how to use this system to manage projects and deliverables that require lots of ‘next actions’ to complete, with maybe a few additional advanced techniques to move you into black belt territory.

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